Japanese Overall Household Spending (YoY) (APR) (23:30 GMT; 19:30 EST)
Consensus: -1.4%
Previous: -2.1%
Outlook: Expectations put overall household spending in Japan down 1.4 percent in April from the same month in 2005. Although a drop, it would be a better result than what was seen in March. Consumer spending is expected to continue improving as the job market strengthens and consumers boost spending and companies expand to increase output. Although the recent and expected numbers seem particularly weak, much of the drop can be attributed to a retraction back to the norm after the extraordinary growth in spending of the fourth quarter of 2005. With the coldest December in 20 years, consumers were forced to spend on winter clothes and heating supplies, boosting spending to far above normal.
Previous: Overall household spending fell in March from the same month in 2006 by 2.1 percent, far more than the 0.2 percent expected. This came with a drop in overall household income of 4.9 percent and a drop in disposable income of 5.2 percent from March 2005. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than half of the economy and drives growth, almost doubled at the end of 2005 and is now easing back. This signals that economic growth in the country will also slow. However, unemployment is at a 7 year low in the country and wages are rising, two factors which should help turn consumer spending around in the coming months.
Japanese Industrial Production (APR P) (23:50 GMT; 19:50 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 1.8% 3.9%
Previous: 0.2% 3.1%
Outlook: Expectations for the preliminary release of April’s industrial production levels show a consensus for a rise of 1.8 % during the month. After factories boosted their output during March, optimistic outlooks on the strength of global and domestic demand may have allowed producers to further augment production levels. Providing some evidence for this outlook, exports for the same period grew 11 percent from a year before, with much of the extra product destined for the US and China. However, the levels expected for the period contradict international commodity prices. With prices for input materials like industrial metals and energy commodities reaching relative highs for the month, running their machines at full-tilt will have been a more costly proposition. Conversely, Japanese automobile makers are benefiting especially as gas prices rise as international consumers look for more fuel efficient and smaller cars.
Previous: Industrial production rose for the first time in 2006 during March, showing a 0.2 percent gain, 0.1 percent higher than expected. The rise came as manufacturers increased their output in anticipation of growing demand on both the domestic and global fronts. The demand for automobiles and electronics in the US and China is growing rapidly along with domestic demand giving manufacturers reason to again boost output after pushing it to record levels in the fourth quarter of 2005. With both exports, which rose 18 percent in March, and domestic demand strong, predictions dictate that there should be a steady rise in production for the rest of the year.
Australian Retail Sales (APR) (01:30 GMT; 21:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 0.3%
Outlook: Australian retail sales for April look to have grown 0.3 percent, the same pace as the month prior. Dimming consumer sentiment for the term, unemployment rose slightly, although unexpectedly, during the month and wages continued to grow but at a lower than expected pace. There is also concern that consistently high gas prices may be starting to wear on consumer’s budgets. It seems that these factors may not have taken too much of a toll during April although automobile sales have been reported to be lower than normal.
Previous: Retail sales during March were lifted by 0.3 percent from February’s levels, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Rising wages and falling unemployment in the country were the premier catalyst for the expansionary activity. During 2005, consumer spending, which accounts for 60 percent of the country’s economy, dropped enough to keep the Australian economy chugging along at the slowest pace in 4 years. However with unemployment hitting a 29 year low and wages having grown at their fastest pace in 9 years during the opening months of 2006, consumer spending has rebounded and the economy has bounding back to expansion levels at a healthy enough pace to allow the Australian National Bank to raise rates in March to cool inflation.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.