Energies
As expected the energy bull bounce died rather quickly this week, plummeting to critical support on the heels of an overwhelmingly bullish inventory report and pep talk by Bush.  So the big question is whether or not $50 is just the psychological support the oil bulls say will hold or a false hope.  Today's failure below support and close below $50 is about all the sign you should need, and the bottom line is that $40 is not as far as you might think.  You can all say summer driving season is going to push demand too high, but the numbers don't lie and the inventory is getting highly disproportionate to the historical seasonal levels.

Financials
The stock market continues to show signs of increased volatility and despite yesterday failures I would say this long term bear is short term neutral.  The downside potential in stocks is minimal, but next week is setting up to be one of such volatile price action that I must admit I might be a bull for week.  The FOMC meeting on Tuesday is certainly one of the most highly anticipated Fed meetings in a while, as the minutes from the last meeting left traders on their toes as to what the Fed and Greenspan will say next.  Bonds broke out of the sideways trading yesterday, but failed to follow through today and will lack breakout ability until the Fed says their peace.  Throw in another monthly employment report on Friday and you got a great setup for a week to remember in the financial and metals sectors.  The dollar should take that volatility and run with a bullish outlook.  I expect a test of the recent highs next week if the gut instinct is right about the timing.  The Canadian broke critical support this week and continues to be my bear foreign currency pick.  The yen is due to fall as well.

Grains
Grains shook off a few rally attempts this week and are showing signs of impatience, as a lack of good news is hitting the wire and the market is starting to take some of the seasonal premium out.  I still say value buy and the market is still in my value buy arena, so do with what you like.  Oats is starting to get so ugly I have to be a buyer, and buying corn or wheat futures with a put as protection is still the way to go.

Meats
Cattle broke down after putting up another good fight, and the last two days is setting up a bear flag and another breakdown sometime next week.  Buy puts, sell futures - just get short before it is too late.  Hogs and bellies are both offering opportunities to sell calls or just play short.

Metals
Gold volatility is creeping up ahead of next week's FOMC and employment report.  Overall the market remains a sell, with silver showing a bit of a leading indicator to future movement.  Buy discounted put premium and get short ahead of next week, as the volatility should be explosive.  Copper is not quite the sell you may think it is.

Softs
OJ needs to break above 9860 to get me short term bullish, but the gut says another bull leg up is around the corner.  Coffee bulls shouldn't fret over the last couple of days of price action - its all insignificant in the scheme of things as coffee is on its way to fresh highs.  Cocoa support above 1450 is strong and buying anywhere between there and 1500 is recommended.  Cotton may only look bearish to me, but the gut has been pretty good to me and my gut says we are heading south.  Momentum is failing there and should turn next week if I know what I am talking about here.  Sugar is back on the bull path and I remain a buyer with stops below the recent lows.  Lumber is heading south, but I would wait until we break 340 to get real aggressive.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.