EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ EUR/USD continues to digest gains from the 1.1825-1.2971 rally.  Since the 1.2971 high on 5/15, price has touched 1.2691/1.2700 4 on four separate occasions and immediately rebounded, arguing that a bottom may be in place for a test of resistance levels going forward.  The latest test of the 1.2700 figure on Friday has led to a rally above 1.2800 with the next important resistance at the 5/24 high of 1.2890.  Current price sits just above Fridayââ,¬â"¢s high of 1.2832.  Support stems from yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high at 1.2767.  Hourly oscillators are overbought and price is approaching the downward sloping resistance line from 1.2971.  This gives scope to some consolidation of the rally above from 1.2700 to above 1.2800 before a test of the mentioned resistance levels plays out.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The break below support from the upward sloping trendline on the hourly combined with the double top from the highs on Friday and tonight at 112.75/78 favor a bearish bias.  Supporting this view is that 21 period RSI on the daily is turning over again and remains below its midpoint of 50.  Support is at the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 108.96-112.94 / 5/26 low at 111.42/44.  We focused on the fact last week that the pairââ,¬â"¢s inability to break above 113.00 (making highs at 112.93 (5/22), 112.96 (5/24), and 112.94 (5/25)) was nothing but bearish for USD/JPY and this view is maintained.  With hourly oscillators oversold (RSI < 30), a bounce to the psychological 112.00 level / 5/29 low at 112.15 is a possibility. 

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ GBP/USD trades in a downward sloping channel as it continues to digest the gains to 1.9025. Fridayââ,¬â"¢s low found support at the lower end of the channel at 1.8529, a possible short term bottom.  The bullish case is bolstered significantly if the pair can make a daily close above the downward sloping resistance line (from 1.9024) which is near 1.8750.  A close of todayââ,¬â"¢s candle near Fridayââ,¬â"¢s high of 1.8774 would produce a bullish morning star pattern.  Similar to other majors, short term oscillators are overextended and favor some consolidation / pullback of the recent 1.8529-1.8745 rally to support levels.    

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The rejection of USD/CHF strength at the top of the corrective channel and more specifically 1.2299 has sent the pair plunging below 1.2100.  Tightened Bollinger bands on the daily give scope to a break out but support is connoted immediately at the upward sloping support line from the 1.1919 low on 5/15.  A break below there exposes the 5/24 low at 1.2024.  A resistance zone is just above at 1.2144-1.2201 and is bound by the 5/25 high and low.   

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USD/CAD is breaking down and has also broken a supporting trendline on the hourly.  The pair is currently testing the psychological 1.1000 figure.  Oscillators on the daily are all bearish again after the recent decline from 112.64.  MACD is sloping down and CCI is in negative territory.  Further, the recent correction of the 1.1771-1.0969 decline topped at the 38.2% fibo at 1.1272 ââ,¬â€œ compelling evidence of a top.  The next level of support is the 5/9 low at 1.0969.  If support holds at 1.0969, then it is possible that the overall correction is unfolding as an A-B-C flat pattern where all 3 waves within the correction are of similar length and time.  The first wave up from 1.0969 to 1.1272 took 8 days and this is the 7th day of the decline from 1.1272.  If this scenario plays out, then we would expect another test of 1.1272 late next week before the overall downtrend resumes.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s inside day has given way to significant AUD/USD strength so far today.  On the weekly, a long doji at the 38.2% fibo of .7014-.7791 at .7495 is strong evidence that the path of least resistance is up.  After spending about a week below the 20 day SMA, AUD/USD currently sits right at the moving average and a break above would reinforce bullishness.  Potential resistance rests at the confluence of the 61.8% fibo of .7791-.7465 / positive sloping short term trendline at .7666.  Some correction of recent gains from .7568 to .7641 is suggested by overextended RSI on the hourly.  Resistance is at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high of .7592.      

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi found support at the 5/11 and 5/12 highs of .6331 and has since rallied to test the .6400 level.  The daily chart shows the most recent uptrend as the third wave of the correction of the downtrend to .5991.  If this is indeed a zigzag correction, then this current rally likely tests the 5/3 high at .6443 and potentially .6596.  .6596 would place this recent wave from .6142 in equality with the rally from .5991 to .6443.  .6596 is also close to potential resistance from the 2/22 low at .6560.  A retrace of recent strength finds support at the 5/11 and 5/12 highs at .6331. 

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.