1. Australian Trade Balance
2. GfK Consumer Confidence Survey
3. KOF Swiss Leading Index
4. Canadian Gross Domestic Product
5. Chicago Purchasing Managers Survey

Australian Trade Balance (APR) (1:30 GMT, 21:30 EST)
Consensus: -A$1400M
Previous: -A$1545M

Outlook: Continued demand from China and a rebound in Japan looks to have propped up raw material exporting in Australia and looks to have contributed to a narrowing of the overall trade balance for the month.  Expanding to A$1.55 billion in the month of March, consensus estimates currently expect an improved shortfall of A$ 1.4 billion following a rise in the net imports after cyclones ravaged mines and oil rigs in the region.  Although shrinking, the overall deficit continues to weigh on overall growth as net imports tend to erode at gross domestic product.  This in turn may refocus consumer concerns domestically.  Notably, with the recent release of surging retail sales figures, expectations remain for higher levels of inflation which may prompt Governor Ian McFarlane in continuing the tightening decision witnessed in the last meeting.

Previous:  Australiaââ,¬â"¢s trade deficit widened more than expected as cyclones disrupted activity in mines and oil rigs and blocked trade in ports of the worldââ,¬â"¢s largest exporter of iron ore and coal.  The monthââ,¬â"¢s shortfall ballooned to A$1.55 billion, wider than the expected A$1.3 billion and worse than the recently revised A$415 million in February.  Nonetheless, prospects for economic growth remain slightly better given the current deficit is still expected to chip away at overall gross domestic product.  Expanding at a 2.5 percent pace, the overall economy is estimated to rise slightly less than 3 percent.  Attributed to continued growth forecasts looks to be Chinaââ,¬â"¢s demand for raw materials.  Although expected to slow slightly in the near term, Chinaââ,¬â"¢s hunger for iron ore looks to be undiminished as growth remains the major theme in the economy.  This will assist in Australiaââ,¬â"¢s fortunes as has been witnessed in the month of February.

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAY) (9:30 GMT, 5:30 EST)
Consensus: -4
Previous: -4

Outlook: The GfK consumer confidence reading in the UK for May is expected to remain unchanged from April at the relatively low level of negative 4.  Confidence is being kept low in the country with higher utility bills * mostly from the continued rise of the price of oil * and more uncertainty over job security causing people to tighten budgets.  After a jump in confidence last month that seemed to signal the worst may be over, a flat reading this month will lead policy-making officials to continue to consider its options for fueling the economy to get it out of the current lull.  Consequently, this may be in the form of a constant interest rate rather than rate hikes as previously anticipated.

Previous: Consumer confidence rose more than expected in April to negative 4 from a March reading of negative 7. This was the first rise in 3 months and was seen despite the rise of oil prices to record levels.  This signaled that household spending in the UK might rise in the following months, hopefully helping to spur growth in the economy.  The UK has recently seen the weakest growth period since 1992.  A renewed willingness to spend on the part of the consumer, who accounts for two thirds of the British economy, could be a strong force in accelerating economic growth.  Retailers reported seeing higher sales during the previous month in line with the confidence reading. 

KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (MAY) (9:30 GMT, 5:30 EST)
Consensus: 2.10
Previous: 2.03

Outlook:  Swiss leading indicators is expected to continue reflecting an economy that is churning ahead, boosting speculation in the near term of at least three more rate hikes till the end of 2006.  Expected to rise again to a 2.1 print, the leading indicators report is estimated to have increased as fundamentals remained buoyed in the economy.  Manufacturing continues to expand along with investment and production in the region.  Confidence additionally remains high as employment prospects continue to be tight.  Subsequently, the benchmark equity market remains almost unchanged on the year after rising almost 8 percent in the previous year.  Ultimately, this should shed continued optimism on the Swiss region as prospects continue to burn brightly in the near term.

Previous:  Swiss leading indicators rose to a 2.03 print, the highest since May 2004, as companies remain upbeat about future prospects in the economy.  With the current boost being received by exporters, the overall $340 billion economy is likely to expand a further 2 percent on increased investment and employment.  Coupled with recent reports, the figure continues to lend bias to another handful of rate hikes as Swiss National Bank President Jean Pierre Roth remains preemptive in his fight against inflation.  Specifically, unemployment reports are at a three year low as confidence in the economy has climbed to the highest n five years.  Manufacturing has also kept pace for the 14th straight month.  Futures traders seem to be in agreement with the previous notion as Libor contracts for December settlement price in a 2 percent interest rate at the end of the year.

Canadian GDP Annualized (MoM) (MAR) (12:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus: 3.0%
Previous: 2.5%

Outlook: Consensus predicts that Canadaââ,¬â"¢s annualized GDP during the first quarter of 2006 rose 3 percent, 0.5 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2005.  As the economy continues to push capacity levels, the Bank of Canada has continued to raise rates through the first quarter of the year to keep the economy from overheating and to keep inflationary pressures from the heavy growth in check.  The growth is being fueled by a strong and growing economy in the United States - where 85 percent of Canadaââ,¬â"¢s exports are shipped - a boom in construction, rising energy prices and production, and improved employment prosepects.  Subsequently, higher rates of growth may further spark inflationary speculation in the underlying spot.

Previous: In the fourth quarter of 2006, Canadian GDP grew an annualized 2.5 percent.  This growth was less than expected and a drop from the 3.5 percent growth seen in the third quarter of 2005.  The drop signaled some relief for the Canadian economy that the Central Bank said had been operating at capacity.  The Bank of Canada showed concern the businesses may be brushing up against levels that could put heavy upward pressure on prices.  As a result, this continually high growth rate has caused the BoC to constantly raise target rates.  The slower growth during the final quarter was caused by a slow down in residential construction and companies lowering their inventories.

Chicago Purchasing Managerââ,¬â"¢s Index (May) (14:00 GMT, 10:00 EST)
Consensus: 56.0
Previous: 57.2

Outlook: During May, the Chicago Purchasing Managerââ,¬â"¢s Index, which surveys manufacturers in the Chicago area on factors such as production rates, incoming orders, and hiring and pricing trends, looks to have again fallen from the previous month, down to 52.6.  This shows that business activity in the Chicago area is continuing to expand however the outlook of local producers seem to be getting less and less cheery.  As energy prices continue to climb, manufacturing, which accounts for 13 percent of the economy of the United States, continues to suffer.  Although it appears the business investment will sustain the economy and the manufacturing sector during the current slower growth.

Previous: The Chicago PMI survey came in softer than expected during April at 57.2, down from 60.4 in March.  The reading still falls above the expansionary level of 50 but slightly below forecasts of 58.  Manufacturing fell from recent high levels as orders slowed and prices rose.  The sector is seeing a slowdown as the high demand from the efforts to rebuild the Gulf Coast of the United States from the hurricanes at the end of summer 2005 subsides.  This along with inflationary pressure is causing sentiment to fall despite the persisting expansion.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.