EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ EUR/USD is stronger and may have completed a 5 wave impulse at 1.2907 (from 1.2699).  1.2907 is yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high and is immediate resistance.  The subsequent retrace to 1.2840 and current rally back to 1.2900 could be the beginning of a correction of the rally to 1.2907.  If this is the case, then initial support comes in at the reaction low from yesterday at 1.2807.  Oscillators on the daily are cautiously bullish but are not of much use in a tight ranging market.  Hourly oscillators are bearish as RSI has dipped below 70.  The inability of the pair to hold above 1.2900 favors more range trading but a break above yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.2907 high exposes the 5/17 high at 1.2918 and eventually the 5/15 high at 1.2971.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY has tested support this evening at the 5/26 low of 111.44 and has since bounced towards the 112.00 figure.  The range conditions of the last few weeks favor a continued bounce over a break lower to test previous lows.  Supporting this view is positive divergence with oscillators on the hourly and support from the 20 day SMA at 1.1154.  Resistance is at the last two dayââ,¬â"¢s highs of 112.37 and 112.78.  In the event of a break below 111.44, the 5/23 low of 110.96 is potential support.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ GBP/USD also seems to have made a 5 wave impulse move up from 1.8529 to 1.8868.  Thus, a correction of this rally to intraday support from yesterday at 1.8709 is favored.  Additional support is at the 61.8% fibo of 1.8564-1.8868 at 1.8681 and the 5/29 high at 1.8640.  Like EUR/USD, hourly oscillators are declining from above overbought levels.  A look at the daily chart shows that the decline from 1.9025 to 1.8529 could be the first wave in what is usually 3 corrective waves.  The rally to 1.8868 is retraced a little more than 61.8% of 1.9025-1.8529 and could very well be the second wave in the overall correction.  Thus, a third wave eventually could target 1.8529. 

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ USD/CHF trades right at the supporting trendline on the hourly (see chart below) and has also made a double bottom with long wicks and positive divergence with RSI on the hourly at 1.2068.  Like the other majors, this evidence makes a case for USD strength in the short term.  Immediate resistance stems from the 10 and 20 day SMAââ,¬â"¢s at 1.2142/52.  Additional strength sets sights on the 61.8% fibo of 1.2299-1.2068 at 1.2210.  A break of the 1.2068 double bottom targets the 5/24 low at 1.2024.   

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USD/CAD is breaking down and has held  below a supporting trendline on the hourly.  The pair has also broken below the previous low  of 1.0969 on5/9.  Oscillators on the daily are all bearish again after the recent decline from 112.64.  MACD is sloping down and CCI is in negative territory.  However, there is positive divergence with RSI on the daily but no obvious support that we can cite as a point of reference until the 138.2% fibo of 1.0969-1.1272 at 1.0853.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/USD rallied after the inside day from 5/29 but has been rejected at the 20 day SMA yesterday and today at .7641.  A close look at the day SMA shows that it has changed slope from positive to negative.  The last time the 20 day SMA saw negative slope was on 4/13.  The hourly shows negative divergence with RSI and price at the upper end of a contacting triangle and thus favors shorts.  Support is at the 5/29 low of .7567. 

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi looks similar to Aussie in that both made negative divergence on the hourly with RSI.  The rally from .6316 to .6428 takes the form of a 5 wave rally and therefore a 3 wave correction is favorable with support connoted from intraday support yesterday at .6369 as well as the 5/29 high at .6353.  Longer term prospects appear bullish as daily oscillators are rising and yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s candle completed a bullish morning star pattern. 

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.