EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The US dollar has fought back and broken below the 1.2800 handle against the euro and has consolidated this morning between the 78.6% and 61.8% fibos of 1.2699-1.2907 at 1.2744/79.  Hourly oscillators are currently rising from just below 30, suggesting that the correction from 1.2907 (5/30 high) may be over or coming to an end.  Initial support is at the mentioned 78.6% fibo of 1.2744 with additional support at the 5/26 low of 1.2699.  A break below 1.2699 suggests that a deeper correction from 1.2971 is underway, possibly to the 5/4 low at 1.2570 or the 38.2% fibo of 1.1825-1.2971 at 1.2530.  A break above the 5/30 1.2907 high exposes the 5/15 high at 1.2971.  Disconcerting to bulls however is a bearish 10, 20 day SMA cross.  The  10 day has remained above the 20 day since 3/6 at 1.2016.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY has tested resistance this evening at the 113.00 handle and the 5/22, 5/24, and 5/25 highs at 112.93/96 have held.  Vested interest in the 113.00 figure is obviously high and thus a break above could take prices to the 50% fibo of 118.88-108.96 at 113.92 quickly.  On the other hand, a triple top at 112.93/113.09 gives scope to a possible top.  Daily oscillators are mixed and are a function of the recent range trading and lack of clarity regarding directional bias.  MACD slope > 0 but RSI < 50 and momentum is > 0 but sloping down.  A cautious bearish stance below 113.09 with tight risk parameters may be the best option here because, as mentioned, a break above the triple top would likely see a short squeeze towards 114.00.  

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ The decline from 1.8863 yesterday has found support at the 1.8600 handle, making its low this evening at 1.8603.  Hourly chart structure appears to have made a wave 1 from 1.8529 to 1.8868 and corrective wave 2 to 1.8603.  As such, as long as prices hold above 1.8529, scope remains for a wave 3 rally to fibo extensions of 138.2% and 161.8% to 1.9072 or 1.9153 (1.8529-1.8868).  Hourly RSI is also rising from below 30 and thus favors longs.  A break below 1.8529 negates this view and would suggest that a deeper correction from 1.9025 is underway towards the 50% and 61.8% fibos of 1.7747-1.9025 at 1.8397 and 1.8236.  Like EUR/USD, the 10 day SMA has crossed below the 20 day SMA for the first time since 4/13. 

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ USD/CHF held its supporting trendline yesterday and has since rallied nearly 150 pips to just above 1.2200.  Like the other majors, this recent move looks like a second corrective wave that must hold below the 5/26 high at 1.2299 for the next anti-dollar move to play out lower.  A break above 1.2299 targets the 38.2% fibo of 1.3196-1.1919 at 1.2405.  Hourly oscillators favor shorts as RSI is declining from above 70 and is accompanied with a long bearish wick as well.  Also supporting bears is a head and shoulders continuation pattern with the current rally forming the right shoulder.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USD/CAD has bounced off of the lower Bollinger band on the daily and corrected nearly 100 pips to back above the 110.00 figure.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s hammer candle pattern gives scope to a reversal to the upside.  Interestingly, the wave 1 move down from 1.1771 to 1.1425 is 346 pips and the latest move from 1.1272 to 1.0927 is 345 pips and thus a possible wave 5 bottom (waves 1 and 5 are often equal or very close to it).  The overall trend is down though as evidenced by the longer term wave count.  Further, this may be just a short term bottom as the hourly chart shows a small 3 wave advance and hourly oscillators are declining from close to overbought levels, suggesting that a test of the 1.0927 low is possible.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/USD has plummeted to below the .7500 handle.  RSI on the daily is now declining and below 50, which is bearish and favors shorts.  The confluence of the 200 day SMA and 5/22 low at .7461/65 is immediate support and a failure by bulls to protect there exposes the 50% fibo of .7014-.7791 at .7403.  The decline on the hourly chart looks rather impulsive as well, suggesting that the path of least resistance is down.  On the contrary, RSI is grossly oversold on the hourly and gives scope to a bounce to yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at .7510 or the 38.2% fibo of .7652-.7471 at .7540.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi has followed in Aussieââ,¬â"¢s footsteps, falling through the .6400 figure and testing the .6300 handle in trading this evening in Tokyo/London trading.  At the moment, the pair is supported by the confluence of its 10 and 20 day SMAââ,¬â"¢s at .6295/.6312.  A break lower there targets the 61.8% fibo of .6142-.6428 at .6251.  Hourly oscillators are not extreme like AUD/USD oscillators but are riding along oversold levels.  It would take a break above todayââ,¬â"¢s high at .6353 to suggest that we are in for bullish action.  In that event, yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high at .6428 becomes a target.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.