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Flurry of Economic Data Pulls the Market Higher
By Toni Hansen | Published  06/3/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
Flurry of Economic Data Pulls the Market Higher

Good day! After an active morning on Friday, the market closed relatively unchanged from the prior day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 12.41 points, the S&P 500 Index rose 2.51 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.45 of a point. All of the day's gains came into the first several minutes of the day with a strong upside gap into the open. This took the Nasdaq Composite into that equal move resistance we were watching for on the 15 minute charts and the 20 day simple moving average resistance. This was also price resistance from a few weeks back in the S&P 500 and these larger time frame resistance levels brought the week's rally to a close.

Friday's economic data focused primarily on employment. Nonfarm payrolls saw the smallest monthly job gain since Hurricane Katrina, with a 75,000 increase. Despite coming in significantly under estimates, the unemployment rate fell from 4.7% in April to 4.6% in May, the lowest level since July 2001. Average hourly wages increased to $16.62., again falling short of estimates, while earnings were 3.7% higher over the last year.

After the upside gap in the indices, swift selling for the first thirty minutes of the day brought the S&P 500 and Dow back into Thursday's mid-day range and price support. 10:00 ET brought with it the release of April's factory orders. New orders for U.S.-made goods fell 1.8% in April, which was slightly less than the anticipated 1.9% decline. A large part of this was due to declining construction demands, but the innuendo is that the economy overall is beginning to slow.

The market solidly held the 10:00 ET support as the morning progressed. The Nasdaq experienced the most mild reaction to the support, falling into a trading range along the 5 minute 20 sma and created an Avalanche pattern on that time frame. The S&P 500 and Dow saw larger retracements of the early morning decline, however, making the 10:00 lows zone a lot stronger support than the morning lows in the Nasdaq. Hence, the Nasdaq continued to pick up downside pace out of its short setup, while the S&P 500 and Dow slowed down into morning lows. The onset of the 12:00 ET reversal period helped that zone hold going into the early afternoon. Notice how this hit at multiple time frame support on the charts shown here, along with the reversal period.

The remainder of the session on Friday was a lot slower with more chop. The indices attempted a third move lower heading into the early afternoon, but the 13:00 ET pivot was a little on the early side as compared to the 10:00 ET correction and the market didn't bother to try to turn the pace over again for another shot at lows. A small triangle formed instead on the Nasdaq, leading to an upside breakout on the 2-5 minute charts out of the 14:30 ET reversal period. The market continued with this bias into the close, putting in a very steady uptrend on the 15 minute charts that took the S&P 500 and Dow back into the earlier morning congestion by the end of the day.

This upcoming week is going to be a much slower one for economic data. Some focus will be on Monday's Washington panel discussion with Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the heads of the European and Japanese central banks. ISM Services are also Monday, but there is not much looming overhead to lead to strong changes in bias on a whim. Now that earnings season is also over, I expect a slower week ahead.

My opinion on the current market action is pretty similar to last week. The technical action is suggestive of a triangle formation beginning on the daily and weekly charts. So far there is still a bit more of a bearish bias within the range. This could simply be the result of the numerous resistance levels overhead, however, including a lot of the daily moving averages and the price resistance levels from the last two months. Once that breaks, the next resistance will be the 20 week sma on the Nasdaq and prior highs on the S&P 500 and Dow.

Economic Reports and Events
June 5: ISM Services for May (10:00 am)
June 6: -
June 7: Crude Inventories 6/02 (10:30 am), Consumer Credit for Apr (3:00 pm)
June 8: Initial Claims 06/03 (8:30 am), Wholesale Inventories for April (10:00 am)
June 9: Export Prices (ex-ag) and Import Prices (ex-oil) for May (8:30 am), Trade Balance for April (8:30 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
June 5: CMGI (A)
June 6: MATK (A), RYAAY (?), COO (A)
June 7: BMC (A), FNSR (A), HRB (A), UTIW (B)
June 8: NSM (?), SHFL (A), SFD (A)
June 9: -
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.