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Forex Economic Alerts for June 6
By John Kicklighter | Published  06/5/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for June 6

Euro-zone PMI - Services (MAY) (08:00 GMT; 04:00 EST)
Consensus:  58.5
Previous:  58.3

Outlook: The services sector in the Euro-zone is expected to have expanded slightly more than last month with the purchasing managerââ,¬â"¢s index survey expected to come in at 58.5.  As the member economies of the Euro-zone continue to expand at a faster pace, services are reaping the benefits as domestic spending ramps up.  Subsequently, service surveys for Germany and France, the largest member economies, are also expected to rise for their own reads.  Another strong reading in this zone index, along with other positive releases over the past week, could allow European Central Bank policy makers, at its Thursday rate decision meeting, to accelerate its pace of rate hikes from the typical 25 basis point rise to a more aggressive 50 basis point increase.

Previous: The European services sector, which accounts for nearly one-third of the Euro-zoneââ,¬â"¢s economy, grew at the fastest pace in over five years during April.  The PMI survey of services rose to 58.3 in April giving the ECB more reasons to raise its target interest rate as economic expansion and high oil prices threatened to fuel inflation.  European services have benefit from economic expansion from strong exports to non-member economies, which has in turn funded firms with plenty of money that that filters into the domestic economy.  Playing a principal role in the aggregate survey read for the month was service activity in Germany. The nationââ,¬â"¢s individual read was at 57.3 for the same period.

Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managerââ,¬â"¢s Survey (MAY) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus:  58.0
Previous:  55.7

Outlook: The Ivey purchasing managerââ,¬â"¢s survey, measuring business and government spending, is expected to have risen to a read of 58 in May after falling farther than expected the previous month.  With the Canadian economy showing itself to be very strong and expanding quickly, spending is expected to have picked back up in May after a momentary slowing in April.  High energy and metals commodity prices, while helping to fuel the economy, could conversely weigh on budgets however as Canadian firm spending itself must spend the higher premium for the necessary resources.

Previous: Business and government spending slowed more than expected during April, although holding above the expansionary 50.0 level.  The Ivey index fell to 55.7 from a 67.2 March reading.  Forecasting doubt for the future, but improving the current monthââ,¬â"¢s read was the rise in both the job and price sub indices.  Overall, this release was contrary to the strong economic data that Canada has been releasing over the past couple of months and may signal the first waverings in the change of trend.  Although the weaker data provided some footing for speculation of a possible stall in the steady pace of rate hikes, both the employment and inflationary gauges were present to quell the crowd.  This internal read on the overall indicator helped to override the disappointing headline figure.

Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Decision (23:30 GMT; 19:30 EST)
Consensus:  5.75%
Previous:  5.75%

Outlook: After the Reserve Bank of Australiaââ,¬â"¢s unexpected decision to boost the overnight lending rate last month, the central bank is expected to return to its usually pace of holding rates steady.  The economy remains strong despite seeing a few negative releases over the past month.  The other key factor playing into the lending rate consideration - inflation - may not be so tame.  Although inflationary pressures may not be completely checked, the RBA seems to not want to raise rates further without first monitoring the effects of the previous hike.  With an already high interest rate of 5.75 percent, consumer spending and the housing market are already set to feel the effects of the higher lending rates.  The preliminary fallout of the decision last month seems to have already cast its effects.  In the wake of the decision, consumer confidence dropped to a 7-month low.  In this spirit, RBA policy makers have already indicated that another hike anytime soon is unlikely.

Previous: The RBA unexpectedly raised its target interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 percent, the highest rate in 5 years, at its May policy meeting.  This was the first move in over a year the lending rate was boosted.  The rise was voted on in an effort to slow inflation, which has recently sat firmly perched at the top of the central bankââ,¬â"¢s tolerance range at 3 percent. Inflation was fueled already by the strong economy and rising commodity prices.  During March, unemployment hit a 29-year low and spurred more fears that the strong job market and rising wages will further push price levels to levels beyond what the RBA is willing to accept.  After the surprising decision was announced, policy makers tried to quickly sooth the financial markets by indicating that they would be watching economic figures closely to see the effects of this rise on inflation and the health of the economy, but that another rate hike would be unlikely in the near future.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.