EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The decline from 1.2976 is likely in a 4th wave consolidation, which means that immediate risk is to the downside back towards todayââ,¬â"¢s 1.2781 low of which a break targets the 5/26 low of 1.2699 ( the 261.8% fibo extension of 1.2976-1.2885 is at 1.2696).  Positive divergence with RSI on the hourly preceded the recent bounce from 1.2781 and additional gains target the 38.2% fibo of 1.2976-1.2781 at 1.2855.  Current price is resisted by the 20 day SMA at 1.2821.  Daily oscillators favor shorts with MACD slope and CCI both negative and declining.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY has blasted through its 10 and 20 day SMAââ,¬â"¢s, trading to the upper Bollinger band on the daily.  Hourly oscillators are declining from overbought levels but weakness at this point looks corrective while gains appear impulsive.  Support is at todayââ,¬â"¢s low of 112.89.  Strength past yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 113.56 high exposes the 50% fibo of 118.87-108.96 at 113.91 and then the 61.8% fibo at 115.07.  A rally to 115.07 could mark the end of the larger correction on the daily and lead to the next leg of the downtrend in USD/JPY.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ The decline from 1.8879 found support just above the 5/26 low at 1.8529.  Like EUR/USD, RSI on the hourly is rising from below 30 and gives scope to some gains going forward, perhaps to the 38.2% fibo of 1.8879-1.8548 at 1.8674 but it appears as if we are in a larger 3rd wave decline of the correction from 1.9025.  This calls for additional weakness past 1.8529, with the confluence of the 5/4 low / 38.2% fibo of 1.7227-1.9025 at 1.8334/39 as the next significant area of support.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ USD/CHF has rallied to and past the 10 day SMA of 1.2167 to just above the psychological 1.2200 figure this evening.  Overbought conditions on the hourly led to a retreat back to the 10 day SMA and additional weakness targets the zone bound by the 20 day SMA / 38.2% fibo of 1.2014-1.2207 at 1.2130/38.  The hourly presents two scenarios:  one is that we already made a 5 wave rally that ended at 1.2206 and the other is that we are about to enter the 5th wave rally and challenge the 6/1 and 5/26 highs at 1.2291/99.  The latter seems more probable because the structure of the overall correction of the downtrend to 1.1919 looks like a 3 wave zigzag (so far) with the first wave ending at 1.2299 and the second at 1.2014.  This makeup places us in the 3rd wave ââ,¬â€œ which could possibly challenge the 38.2% fibo of 1.3233-1.1919 at 1.2419 before the large correction on the daily chart is completed.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USD/CAD has also rallied past its 10 and 20 day SMAââ,¬â"¢s.  It appears as if the recent retrace from 1.1171 is the early part of a correction that could lead to a rally to the 138.2% and 161.8% fibos of 1.0927-1.1100 from 1.0972 at 1.1211 or 1.1251.  Immediate price action could be down as short term (hourly) oscillators are declining from overbought readings.  Support is at the 38.2% fibo of 1.0972-1.1171 at 1.1095.  The scenario that we described yesterday involving a head and shoulders continuation pattern (leading to weakness) could still play out but rallies appear far more impulsive than declines at this point.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/USD continues to plummet and currently trades at support defined by the 50% fibo of .7014-.7791 at .7403.  With yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 80 pip decline, the pair now trades below the 200 day SMA, which is now resistance at .7461.  Positive divergence with oscillators on the hourly does point to some short term correction, potentially towards the 38.2% fibo of .7545-.7390 at .7449 but daily oscillators are sloping down and suggest continued weakness towards the 61.8% fibo of .7014-.7791 at .7312.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi also continued to decline yesterday and found support at the confluence of the 100 day SMA / 61.8% fibo of .6142-.6482 at .6252/64.  A break below todayââ,¬â"¢s .6250 low exposes the 78.6% fibo at .6204.  daily and hourly oscillators are both bearish as daily CCI crossed below 0 yesterday and hourly RSI continues to fluctuate below the midpoint of 50.  Any strength contends with todayââ,¬â"¢s high at .6299.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.