AUD/CADââ,¬â€œ AUD/CAD has formed a double bottom on the daily from the 3/29 low at .8208 and the 6/2 low at .8216. This suggests that at least a bounce / correction of the decline from .8590 to .8216 is forthcoming. In such as event, the 6/6 high at .8323 and the 38.2% fibo of .8590-.8216 at .8359 is resistance. Consolidation of recent losses has been unfolding as an expanding triangle since 6/1 and the upper end of the triangle is at about .8325. A continuation of weakness runs into support at the mentioned .8208 low and then the 78.6% fibo of .7503-1.0549 at .8156.
AUD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ AUD/JPY trades at the lower end of a 85.78-83.54 range. The past two days form a double doji, giving scope to a continued bounce from the 6/5 low at 83.46. Resistance stems from the 6/6 high at 84.34 and the 61.8% fibo of 85.78-83.46 at 84.89. Further, hourly RSI has just crossed above the midpoint of 50, which is in line with and favors a continued bounce towards mentioned resistance levels. Longer term prospects are bearish as evidenced by a negative 20, 40 SMA cross on the weekly. The last cross of these two moving averages was to the upside when the pair was at 79.77.
AUD/NZD ââ,¬â€œ The Aussie has recovered a bit against the Kiwi, but in doing so has formed a head and shoulders pattern, indicating continued weakness over the longer term. The last two weeks have seen a range primarily between 1.1775 and 1.1990. With the pair most recently bouncing off of the lower end of the range, the immediate directional bias is likely up towards the upper end of the range. The hourly chart (below) shows a clear picture of the range. Still, hourly oscillators such as RSI are nearing overbought territory, giving scope to weakness again in the near future.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.