EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The recent decline from 1.2976 continues to break through a variety of supports. Look for support at the 6/1 low of 1.2721 as well as the 5/26 low at 1.2699.  Initial resistance in the event of a rally is at the 20 day SMA of 1.2817.  Hourly oscillators suggest that a short term bottom is near with RSI rising from below 30 and illustrating positive divergence as prices move lower.  Daily oscillators favor shorts with MACD slope and CCI both negative and declining.  The mentioned low at 1.2759 is initial support with a break below exposing the 5/26 low at 1.2699.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY continues to gain and just broke above an ascending triangle on the hourly, giving fuel to more gains towards the 61.8% fibo of 118.87-108.96 at 115.07.  With the pair trading near the upper end of the Bollinger band on the daily, 115.07 could be a potential reversal level. The 50 day SMA is just above current price at 114.12 and presents potential resistance as well.  Dampening the bullish argument is negative divergence with oscillators with price on the hourly.  Any declines encounter todayââ,¬â"¢s low at 113.35 and yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at 112.89.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ GBP/USD has virtually the same technical make up as EUR/USD.  Both pairs have been declining and both pairs are nearing bottoms as indicated by positive divergence with oscillators on the hourly.  Trading has been of the range variety and will likely continue as such until the corrective fourth wave of the rally to 1.9025 comes to an end and gives way to a 5th wave advance towards 1.9025.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ USD/CHF has also rallied, gaining just past its 78.6% fibo of 1.2291-1.2014 at 1.2232 to 1.2250.  It does appear as if a 5 wave rally is complete at that level ââ,¬â€œ negative divergence with RSI on the hourly supports this view.  If a decline is underway, then initial resistance is at the confluence of todayââ,¬â"¢s low / 10 day SMA at 1.2177/83.  Daily oscillators do still favor longs but these longer term oscillators are of little use when smaller ranging market conditions prevail.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USD/CAD has also rallied past its 10 and 20 day SMAââ,¬â"¢s.  It appears as if the recent retrace from 1.1171 is the early part of a correction that could lead to a rally to the 138.2% and 161.8% fibos of 1.0927-1.1100 from 1.0972 at 1.1211 or 1.1251.  Immediate price action could be down as short term (hourly) oscillators are declining from overbought readings.  Support is at the 38.2% fibo of 1.0972-1.1171 at 1.1095.  The scenario that we described yesterday involving a head and shoulders continuation pattern (leading to weakness) could still play out but rallies appear far more impulsive than declines at this point.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/USD finally found support just below the .7400 figure yesterday and currently tests resistance from the 200 day SMA at .7461.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s doji candle at the 50% fibo of .7014-.7791 does give scope to a reversal and thus continued strength towards the 61.8% fibo of .7545-.7390 at .7485.  If this is the case, then it would appear that a large 3 wave correction of the uptrend from .7014 to .7791 was over at .7390 and that a larger uptrend is just now beginning.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi is little changed in the past 24 hours and trades just above the confluence of the 100 day SMA / 61.8% fibo of .6142-.6482 at .6252/64.  A break below yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s .6250 low exposes the 78.6% fibo at .6204.  Daily and hourly oscillators are both bearish as daily CCI crossed below 0 yesterday and hourly RSI continues to fluctuate just below the midpoint of 50.  Any strength contends with todayââ,¬â"¢s  high at .6304.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.