German Trade Balance (APR) (06:00 GMT; 02:00 EST)
Consensus:   12.3B
Previous:   14.3B

Outlook: Germanyââ,¬â"¢s trade advantage is expected to have slimmed in April to €12.3 billion.  Economists predict exports sustained a slight recovery for the period, climbing 1.5 percent, after having fallen sharply in the previous month.  However this advance looks to be overridden by a larger rise in imports, expected at 2.2 percent.  Contributing directly to this relation was action in exchange rates.  The Euro continued to strengthen against the dollar through April, making foreign goods more attractive to Germans while simultaneously making German goods less attractive to global consumers.  Fortunately, much of Germanyââ,¬â"¢s trade volume comes from the Euro-zone (unaffected by the exchange rate movements).  Sales abroad have been a hefty contributor to growth over the past year, though the country may still need to look for alternate sources for boosting growth as the euro continues to strengthen and global competition heats up.

Previous: Germanyââ,¬â"¢s trade surplus narrowed to €14.3 billion in April as exports declined more than anticipated by 3.2 percent.  Demand for German products abroad fell as the euro strengthened 8 percent against the dollar over the opening months of the year, gaining 1.6 percent in March alone.  As products from all over the Euro-zone become more expensive to foreign consumers, member nations using the European monetary unit will have to look to consuming each otherââ,¬â"¢s products as well as relying more heavily on domestic demand to sustain growth patterns.  Furthermore, the narrowing of the trade surplus could be attributed to natural fluctuations.  After a previous 3 months of very strong demand for German products, a correction was becoming more and more probable.  Imports also dropped during March, but by less than half that of exports.

UK Trade Balance (APR) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
                    (Visable)  (Non EU-25)
Consensus:   -5.800B   -2.800B
Previous:       -5.455B   -2.602B

Outlook: The UK trade deficit is expected to have widened slightly during April to Ã,£5.8 billion.  Similarly, UK trade with countries outside of the European Union, which buy well over half of UK exports, the standing shortfall is expected to have expanded to Ã,£2.8 billion.  Looking to the simple components of the balance, exports are predicted to have grown over the month, especially those destined for the EU whose conglomerate economy continues to grow at a faster clip.  The European Commission recently released predictions that the Euro-zoneââ,¬â"¢s economy will growth 0.5 and 0.9 percent over the second and third quarters respectively.  Nonetheless, this occasion will have to compete with higher import costs such as those of materials like crude oil, which rose to record highs in over the period.  Additionally, exports specifically to the United States, a significant consumer of British goods, may also have felt some pressure of the appreciation of the pound against the dollar that has evolved since the beginning of the year. 

Previous:  The trade shortfall in the UK narrowed for the first time in 5 months to Ã,£5.455 billion, while the deficit held with those countries outside of the European Union trimmed down to Ã,£2.602 billion.  The improvement for the month was paced by a rise in sales of cars and locally produced oil abroad, which matched the every expanding demand on the global market place.  Exports grew 2.3 percent during the month while imports fell by 4.2 percent.  The pick up in export demand has helped the UK economy move away from dependence on fumbling domestic consumer spending at a time when the Bank of England is concerned with growth prospects especially with high interest rates and fuel costs.

US Trade Balance (APR) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:   -$65.0B
Previous:  -$62.0B

Outlook: The trade deficit in the worldââ,¬â"¢s largest economy is expected to have broadened to $65.0 billion over April.  If realized, the level would be the fifth largest shortfall on record.  Key to the expected worsening was record prices of oil for the month, which is likely to accelerate the pace of imports beyond that of sales of US products abroad.  The cost of imported petroleum rose 11.5 percent during the month of April, the largest jump since March 2005.  Overall import price are expected to print a 0.7 percent rise.  Inversely, export prices look to have only risen only 0.3 percent for the same month however as the cheaper dollar slowly attracted foreign consumers to American products.  After two months of surprise contractions, it is not particularly surprising that the deficit is back to its expansionary norm.  In addition to pricing concerns, demand for energy products increased in anticipation of the high-demand, summer driving season.  Domestically, consumer spending in April was supported by consumer confidence at its highest level since May of 2002, while retail sales rose 0.5% despite the additional costs.  Although global economic growth is generating demand for exports, the US is growing at a faster pace than many of the other major economies and imports are effectively canceling gains in exports.

Previous: The United Stateââ,¬â"¢s sizable goods trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly for the second consecutive month to $62.0 billion in March.  This marked the lowest balance deficit since August 2005.  Leading the shortfall lower was the price of petroleum imports, which dropped along with the fall in oil prices during the month.  However import prices overall showed a rise of 2.1 percent - the most in 7 months, while export prices only rose 0.6 percent.  This conservative rise in prices was combined with a rise in export demand to a record level as global consumption mirrored the rise in the globeââ,¬â"¢s economy.  Trade was also pushed along by a weakening dollar, making US products more attractive abroad.  Further, helping to lower the deficit was a rise in exports to China.  US companies shipped a record $5 billion to China, however imports from the country continued to rise, reaching $20.5 billion.

Canadian Merchandise Trade (APR) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:   C$5.5B
Previous:  C$5.1B

Outlook: The Canadian international merchandise trade surplus is expected to have regained some of the lost ground from Marchââ,¬â"¢s post.  The surplus is expected to widen to C$5.5 billion, higher than March but not quite the C$6.3 billion surplus seen in February.  Additionally, the Canadian dollar did not suffer from the surging appreciation during April that had hurt exports in March, although the currency remained historically strong against the dollar.  This may have allowed exports to recover slightly as foreign consumers digested the higher prices to satiate demand driven by booming economic growth, but did not make Canadian products any more price-appealing.  Another facet swelling the export leg was energy prices.  Crude prices rose to record highs while fear-driven levels of demand still gripped the market.  The export market was one of the main drivers for accelerating the Canadian economy up to its current speed last year.  A sustainable surplus will help to fund growth until domestic demand is assured a solid footing.

Previous: Canadaââ,¬â"¢s trade surplus narrowed more than expected, by 15.7 percent to C$5.14 billion, during March - the smallest positive balance since June 2005.  Over the period, Imports rose 3.6 percent as expanding airline and mining companies bought more of their equipment from overseas.  Strong domestic economic growth, as well as the weaker currency, pushed the demand for imports to near record levels with increases in oil, machinery, consumer and automotive good imports.  Demand coming from all sectors and both consumers and business proves further the accelerating growth of the economy, which would allow the Bank of Canada to continue to raise interest rates.  Exports, on the other hand, were hurt by the surging value of the Canadian dollar and consequently only rose by 1.1 percent.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.