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Nearing the End of a Large Degree Correction
By Jamie Saettele | Published  06/9/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Nearing the End of a Large Degree Correction

EUR/USD â,“ The destructive C wave (3rd wave of the correction of the rally to 1.2971) continues to unleash its power as the pair has fallen for the 4th straight day (first time since 3/23).  A support zone below is bound by the 5/1 low of 1.2553 and 5/4 low of 1.2570 â,“ which is the previous 4th wave of one less degree.  Just below is the 38.2% fibo of 1.1825-1.2971 at 1.2535.  These support levels could be the terminus for the correction from 1.2971.  Strength contends with the 5/19 low of 1.2691and then the 6/1 low of 1.2721.  Hourly oscillators favor a bounce in the short term, possibly to the 38.2% fibo of 1.2976-1.2624 at 1.2758 (if 1.2624 holds), as RSI has ascended above 30.

USD/JPY â,“ USD/JPY rallied to 114.72 and has since fallen off to just below the 100 day SMA at 114.05.  Wave structure on the hourly is as follows â,“ the current decline from 114.72 is a possible 4th wave decline and potential support lies at the 38.2% fibo of 111.51-114.72 bull wave at 113.50 as well as the 6/7 low at 112.89.  Thus, scope remains for another rally to challenge 114.72 and beyond â,“ potentially to the 61.8% fibo of 118.87-108.96 at 115.07 before a complete retracement of the decline to 108.96 is professed as complete.  The structure of the correction from 108.96 is in A-B-C zigzag form with the current rally as the C wave.  A property often seen in these corrections is the equality of the A and C waves - with the length of wave A equal to 398 pips (112.94-108.96) and wave C starting at 111.33, we find that 111.33 + 3.98 (398 pips) approximates an end to the overall correction at 115.31.  This is very close to the 61.8% fibo level at 115.07 as well as the 4/26 high at 115.36.

GBP/USD â,“ GBP/USD is similar to EUR/USD as it enters a C wave (3rd wave of a correction) and thus nearing the end of its correction of the rally to 1.9025.  The pair has formed a small supportive base just above the 1.8367 low in what looks like a correction of lesser degree before bears mount an attempt on the 38.2% of 1.7229-1.9002 at 1.8327.  A continued rally from the 1.8367 low targets support from the 38.2% fibo of 1.8774-1.8367 at 1.8522 as well as the 6/8 high at 1.8576.  Resistance at these levels would possibly give way to the mentioned attack on 1.8327, which is accompanied by the 5/4 low at 1.8334.

USD/CHF â,“ USD/CHF has also rallied, gaining past the 5/11 and 5/26 highs at 1.2299/1.2304.  This development paves the way for a test of the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.3234-1.1919 / 5/4 high / 5/1 high / 5/2 high between 1.2420/47.  Like the other majors, probability points to this as the terminus of the correction of the downtrend to 1.1919.  Recently overbought oscillators are now no longer so and thus there is potential for lower prices in the immediate future.  Support is at the confluence of the 6/7 high / 38.2% fibo of 1.2039-1.2362 at 1.2239/42.

USD/CAD â,“ USD/CAD has rallied past the 1.1200 handle but shy of the previous high on 5/19 at 1.1272.  The daily wave structure is clear and the low on 5/9 at 1.0969 has given way to a flat with wave A from 1.0969-1.1272 and wave B from 1.1272 to 1.0927 (wave B usually retraces a bit more than the length of wave A).  Thus, wave C traded to 1.1243 so far but there is a possibility that the correction from 1.0969 is over.  Wave C is often 100%-161.8% of wave A, which places the end of wave C anywhere between 1.1230 and 1.1417.  This is a large range but the rally to 1.1243 does satisfy.  Looking for clues on the hourly chart, we favor an extended 5th wave advance past 1.1243 to 1.1270 (where 1 = 5 and 38.2% of 1.1771-1.0969), or 1.1335 (1.1095 + (1.382 * (1.1100-1.0927)), or 1.1377 ((1.1095 + (1.618 * (1.1100-1.0927)) and 50% of 1.1771-1.0969).  Prior to that though, a continued correction of recent strength is suggested by declining hourly oscillators.  Support is connoted by the 6/6 high at 1.1171 and the 38.2% fibo of 1.0972-1.1243 at 1.1140.

AUD/USD â,“ From yesterday (still relevant) â,“ â,"AUD/USD finally found support just below the .7400 figure yesterday and currently tests resistance from the 200 day SMA at .7461.  Yesterdayâ,"s doji candle at the 50% fibo of .7014-.7791 does give scope to a reversal and thus continued strength towards the 61.8% fibo of .7545-.7390 at .7485.  If this is the case, then it would appear that a large 3 wave correction of the uptrend from .7014 to .7791 was over at .7390 and that a larger uptrend is just now beginningâ,.  This may indeed be the case but current price is right at yesterdayâ,"s high of .7464 and a failure here creates an ominous double top on the hourly.  A break above would certainly bolster the bullish cause.

NZD/USD â,“ Kiwi is similar to AUD/USD in short term structure.  A 3 wave decline from .6428 to .6224 is in place and the rise from .6242 looks like part of a 3rd wave rally (which are usually strong) to either the 138.2% or 161.8% extensions of .6224-.6304 at .6352/71.  .6353 is also the high on 6/5 and thus this figure has more appeal.  In the immediate future, a correction of recent strength is suggested by overbought RSI on the hourly and support comes in at the 38.2% fibo of .6242-.6321 at .6291 (if .6321 is not breached).

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.