EUR/AUDâ�,�“ EUR/AUD has tumbled the past 3 days from 1.7352 to below 1.7000 for the first time since 5/31.  Price is currently testing support at the 50% fibo of 1.6364-1.7351 at 1.6859.  Even with the drastic fall, prospects are still bearish.  In fact, daily CCI is just now crossing below 0 and RSI below 50.  Continued weakness probes support from the 5/26 low at 1.6764 and the 61.8% fibo of 1.6364-1.7351 / 4/20 high at 1.6730/42.  Hourly oscillators are extremely oversold and favor a bounce or some consolidation of the decline.  It does look like a 5th wave down began at 1.6989 and thus projections for a short term bottom are 1.6866 (where 5 = 1 (1.7352-1.7230), 1.6819 (1.6989 â�,�“ (1.382 * (1.7352-1.7230)) and 1.6789 (1.6989 â�,�“ (1.618 * (1.7352-1.7230)).

EUR/CAD â�,�“ The Loonie has clobbered the euro this week to the tune of 250 pips.  Current price is at the 50% fibo of 1.3493-1.4454 at 1.3974.  Price action is significant today as the pair broke below a consolidating triangle that was a consolidating 4th wave of a larger downtrend.  As such, projections for a 5th wave bottom are 1.3576 (where wave 5 = wave 1 (1.6702-1.5829)), 1.3242 (1.4457 â�,�“ 1.382 * (1.6702-1.5829)) and 1.3035 (1.4457 - 1.618 + (1.6072-1.5829)).  The break of the triangle favors a bearish bias.  Bounces encounter resistance at the 5/29 low of 1.4047 and the 6/8 low of 1.4149.  Favoring a bearish bias is the break today of the 200 day SMA.

EUR/NZDâ�,�“ From last Friday â�,�“ â�,��"It looks though like a 5 wave bullish sequence ended at 2.0834 on 5/15 and that we are now in corrective mode, thus presenting us with a bearish bias.â�,�  This view is still relevant and support is at the 5/25 low of 1.1986.  If we are indeed in the C wave of the correction, then a violent decline is possible, possibly to the 138.2% and 161.8% fibos of 2.0810 to 1.9896 at 1.9301 and 1.9085.  Further, the 38.2% fibo of 1.6320-2.0831 comes in at 1.9111, which makes the 161.8% extension at 1.9085 all the more attractive as a longer term projection.  Like the other pairs, a bounce in the immediate future is a possibility as RSI is in oversold territory on the hourly.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.