EUR/JPY ââ,¬â€œ EUR/JPY has fallen the past three days after making a double top with the 4/20 high at 145.50.  After falling to 143.70, the pair has bounced, creating a head and shoulders reversal on the hourly.  Prospects are thus bearish and support comes in at the 38.2% fibo of the 140.18-145.68 bull wave at 143.60.  Daily oscillators are mostly bearish as MACD slope and momentum are both negative.  RSI and CCI are sloping down but not yet below their midpoints of 0 and 50.  Hourly RSI is neutral as the pair has consolidated recent losses.

EUR/CHF ââ,¬â€œ EUR/CHF resistance at the 4/18 low of 1.5632 held and the pair has since fallen to below 1.5550.  With the low of wave 1 (1.5632) holding as resistance, the recent decline is likely a wave 5 that should eventually challenge the 5/18 low at 1.5448.  Todayââ,¬â"¢s decline has also taken the pair below the 20 and 200 day SMAs.  Slight positive divergence on the hourly near oversold levels gives scope to a short term rise in price ââ,¬â€œ resistance is at the 6/6 low of 1.5562 as well as the 6/9 high at 1.5599.  Supporting a bearish bias is the recent break of a short term downward sloping channel.

EUR/GBP ââ,¬â€œ The recent decline in EUR/GBP is either a correction of the bull move from .6751 to .6909 or the beginning of a new downtrend.  With the short term picture a bit fuzzy, a look at the weekly offers clarity.  What we do see on the weekly is a well-defined symmetrical triangle (since May 2003) that is a consolidation of the .5712-.7253 May 2000-May 2003 bull wave.  The structure of the triangle is nearing the end of its 5th wave as well as the apex, giving scope to a break in the near future.  Moreover, the uptrend that began in May 2000 and topped out in May 2003 lasted for 163 weeks ââ,¬â€œ the consolidation that has followed is in its 162nd week of trading.  Time series analysis often shows that periods of trend and consolidation are related to each other by either a Fibonacci multiple or multiple of 1 (equal).

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.