EUR/USD â�,�“ The EUR/USD has bounced from 1.2529 after forming positive divergence with RSI on the hourly.  The low was just pips below the 38.2% fibo of the 1.1825-1.2971 bull wave at 1.2535 that we have focused on for the last few weeks.  The pair trades just below the 50 day SMA at 1.2597 and a break past there exposes the 6/8 low at 1.2624.  With hourly RSI just rising above 50 on the hourly, scope remains for a continued rally.  A resumption of weakness encounters the 1.2529 low and a break below there exposes the 61.8% fibo of 1.2066-1.2971 at 1.2414.

USD/JPY â�,�“ USD/JPY also tested and briefly pierced our objective just above the 4/26 high at 115.46 (just above the 4/26 high at 114.36).  The pair has fallen to just below the 115.00 handle after forming negative divergence with oscillators on the hourly.  If yesterdayâ�,��"�s high was a top, then weakness should persist until at least the 38.2% fibo of 111.33-115.45 at 113.87.  If the bounce lower off of the upper Bollinger band on the daily is not sustained â�,�“ then the 115.46 is resistance with a break higher exposing the 200 day SMA at 115.82.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Yesterdayâ�,��"�s remarks that  â�,��"There is still the possibility that the pair makes one more thrust down to the 38.2% fibo of 1.7230-1.9025 at 1.8340â�,� were correct although the pair did exceed our estimate for a short term low as it reversed just above the 50 day SMA at 1.8315.  Immediate resistance comes in at the 6/9 high at 1.8482.  A break above there gives scope to a test of the 38.2% fibo of 1.8878-1.8315 at 1.8529.  Yesterdayâ�,��"�s low at 1.8315 is initial support.

USD/CHF â�,�“ USD/CHF still looks like the inverse of GBP/USD and also reversed at its 50 day SMA yesterday at 1.2415.  Prospects going forward are similar to that of the other majors â�,�“ with a continued contra dollar rally targeting the 38.2% fibo of 1.2014-1.2406 at 1.2256.  The large 3 wave correction of the decline to 1.1919 may be over but we will have to wait for the current decline to unfold in order to proclaim that with a degree of confidence.  The structure of the decline will be telling and we will monitor developments as they unfold.

USD/CAD â�,�“ USD/CAD has bounced off of support from a gathering of daily lows in the 1.0970 area.  Still, wave structure favors a bearish bias with the 1.1243 high on 6/8 marking the end of a 3 wave correction and thus the subsequent decline to 1.0960 is likely the beginning of a new downtrend.  As such, any strength is viewed as a correction of weakness.  Only a rally above 1.1243 would negate bearish implications.  Resistance remains at the 78.6% fibo of the 1.1243-1.10960 decline at 1.1182.

AUD/USD â�,�“ AUD/USD fell below the .7400 handle and pierced the previous low at .7390 on 6/7 (making a low at .7365).  The large correction of strength to .7791 may be over as evidenced by positive divergence with oscillators on the hourly at yesterdayâ�,��"�s low.  Also, the C wave decline from .7652 does look like a full 5 waves.  Thus, the bias is cautiously bullish above .7365 but a break lower exposes projections at the .7315/25 area.  The 61.8% fibo of .7014-.7791 comes in at .7315 and wave C would equal wave A (.7791-.7465) at .7525.  Further, the 161.8% fibo of .7390-.7502 is at .7320.  A continued bounce targets the 6/12 low at .7453.

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwi is similar to AUD/USD in that the rally attempt off of recent lows has failed.  The difference is that Kiwi trades in a triangle on the daily following a downtrend while Aussie trades in a zigzag correction following an uptrend.  Triangles are often 5 waves and this recent decline from .6428 is a 4th wave.  Thus, we are looking for a bounce towards the upper end of the triangle near .6400. This could be happening now with the recent rally off of yesterdayâ�,��"�s .6189 low already past .6250.  Looking in more detail â�,�“ the rally from .5991 (3/29) to .6443 (5/3) is the 1st of a 3 wave correction with the range from .6443 (5/3) to .6189 (6/13) the second wave.  This puts Kiwi at the beginning of the third wave rally to the mentioned are a (upper end of the triangle) and possible to the 61.8% fibo of .7000-.5991 at .6613.  Fibonacci time series point to yesterday as a potential turning point as well since it was the 55th day (Fibonacci number) since the .5991 low on 3/29.  .6142 must hold as support for the above scenario to play out.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.