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Spotlight on Hot and Cold Sectors
By Price Headley | Published  06/14/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
Spotlight on Hot and Cold Sectors

Normally in the Sector Spotlight, we're able to look at the best and worst sectors on a relative basis. There always seem to be at least one of them starting to fall in or out of favor. But over the last few weeks, the discussion points have been limited, for two reasons. First, every sector was and still is pointed lower, so there is no new trend in development. And second, there are no exceptions to the first reason - this weakness involves every sector, so no single industry stands out.  With that in mind, today we're only able to point out a handful of higher-odds chart set-ups.

Alcohol & Tobacco

The so-called sin stocks are holding up reasonably well, as they usually do when things get bearish. The S&P version of an alcohol and tobacco index is one of the very few indices that's still above the 250 day moving average. In fact, we've actually seen positive performance from most of these names in recent weeks, and over the last several months as well. We're looking for this industry (part of the non-cyclical sector) to keep cranking out slow and steady gains - especially if the overall market continues to tank.

Alcohol & Tobacco - Weekly

Financials, Banks

Although they've been beaten up along with everything else, the damage hasn't been quite as bad with the financial stocks, and the banks in particular. In most cases, these stocks are above their 250-day line (most as of this week), and finding support there. We suspect that some of the best bullish opportunities are here, with the recent pullback making for nice entry levels. Given the current scenario, that's as it should be. The banks are typically considered a 'defensive' stock when the market is generally weak. However, we wouldn't rely too heavily on that theory. Our stop on this generally bullish bias is still a close under the 250-day line for whatever trading instrument you choose.

Financials (top), and Banks (bottom) - Weekly

Healthcare

Despite the intense pain the bulls have felt over the last five weeks, the correction wasn't completely devastating. In fact, it was on the upper end of a normal corrective move, with the S&P 500 pulling back by 7.6% from its peak high to the current low (the NASDAQ's was bigger). And for the most part, each sector has mirrored the overall market's performance. That's why we're not necessarily going completely bearish on any and all sectors; if the market does recover, odds are that most sectors will too. However, there is one key exception to the generalization.

Healthcare stocks have been weak independently of the market, beginning a pullback well before any of the indices did. As out chart shows, these stocks are well under their 250 day lines, and even the 50 day line is under the 250 day line. The healthcare sector is also one of the very few sectors that has actually made a lower significant low (under the lows hit in October of last year). Clearly there's more weakness here than general market weakness. We expect this sector to remain in a bearish rut, even if the rest of the market manages to start moving higher.

Healthcare - Weekly

Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.