EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EUR/USD has resumed its bounce from 1.2529 ââ,¬â€œ just below the 38.2% fibo of 1.1825-1.2971 at 1.2535.  The market has digested gains to 1.2648 ââ,¬â€œ which is initial resistance.  Probability favors a continued rally to the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.2976-1.2529 / 138.2% fibo extension of 1.2529-1.2604 at 1.2696/99 (also 5/26 daily low).  A break there encounters the 161.8% fibo extension at 1.2725.  The pair trades just above the 50 day SMA ââ,¬â€œ which is short term support along with intraday support at 1.2588.  A sustained break below 1.2588 does damage to the short term bullish structure and would argue for a possible break of the 1.2529 low from 6/13.    

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY has slowly retreated from yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 115.41 high to just below the 115.00 handle.  If yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high was a top, then weakness should persist until at least the 38.2% fibo of 111.33-115.45 at 113.87.  Other targets include the 138.2% and 161.8% fibo extensions of 115.44-114.44 at 113.98 and 113.75.  CCI is > 100 and thus extreme to the upside but a decline below 100 would reinforce bearishness.  On the other hand ââ,¬â€œ resistance rests at the 6/13 high of 115.44 and strength beyond there damages the cautious bearish stance and exposes the 200 day SMA at 115.84. 

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ The hourly Cable chart looks just like that of EUR/USD as the pair trades in a rally off recent lows  and thus targets resistance at the 38.2% fibo of 1.8879-1.8315 at 1.8530 as well as fibo extensions of 1.8315-1.8453 at 1.8540 (138.2%) and 1.8573 (161.8%).  The 50 day SMA has served as support the past two days and rests at 1.8348 ââ,¬â€œ about 100 pips below current price.  Like the other majors ââ,¬â€œ the wave count (A-B-C correction from 1.9025), the fibo support (38.2% of 1.7229-1.9025 at 1.8344) and the divergence with price at the 1.8315 low on 6/13 all favor the position that a low is already in place.  Further, yesterday marked the 21st  (Fibonacci number) day since the top at 1.9025 and turning points often occur at Fibonacci intervals from major tops and bottoms.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ USD/CHF broke below its consolidating triangle following the one final thrust upward that we were looking for.  This favors a bearish bias on the pair with resistance at 1.2379 (intraday yesterday) protecting the high from 6/13 at 1.2406 ââ,¬â€œ which would need to hold to keep a short term bearish bias.  Like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, USD/CHF has held below the 50 day SMA (above in the case of EUR and Cable) ââ,¬â€œ which is also resistance at 1.2393.  If a move down plays out, then the low from yesterday at 1.2266 is support and the 38.2% fibo of the 1.2013-1.2407 bull wave at 1.2257 is just below.       

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USD/CADââ,¬â"¢s rally was rejected at 1.1173 and the pair has since hovered near/within the 1.1130/40 zone.  A very short term head and shoulders reversal pattern is evident on the hourly following the rally from 1.0960-1.1173.   This favors the opinion that wave structure favors a bearish bias with the 1.1243 high on 6/8 marking the end of a 3 wave correction and thus the subsequent decline to 1.0960 is likely the beginning of a new downtrend.  As such, any strength is viewed as a correction of weakness.  Only a rally above 1.1243 would negate bearish implications.  Resistance remains at the 78.6% fibo of the 1.1243-1.10960 decline at 1.1182.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The large correction of the move up to .7791 may be over as evidenced by positive divergence with oscillators on the hourly at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low of .7344 along with yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s doji candle.  The C wave decline from .7652 does look like a full 5 waves.  Thus, the bias is cautiously bullish above .7344 but a break lower exposes projections at the .7315/25 area.  The 61.8% fibo of .7014-.7791 comes in at .7315 and wave C would equal wave A (.7791-.7465) at .7525.  Further, the 161.8% fibo of .7390-.7502 is at .7320.  A continued bounce targets the 6/12 low at .7453 and then the confluence of the 6/9 high / 38.2% fibo of .7791-.7344 at .7503/15.  Hourly RSI has risen above the midpoint of 50 after forming a series of positive divergences with price at recent lows.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi is similar to AUD/USD as its rally attempt off of recent lows has also failed.  The difference is that Kiwi trades in a triangle on the daily following a downtrend while Aussie trades in a zigzag correction following an uptrend.  Triangles are often 5 waves and this recent decline from .6428 is a 4th wave.  Thus, we are looking for a bounce towards the upper end of the triangle near .6400. That bounce may be in its early stages as yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low made a short term double bottom at .6190 with the previous dayââ,¬â"¢s low.  The decline off of the .6265 high held fibo support at .6206 (78.6% of .6190-.6265).  Therefore, wave structure places us in the beginning of a third wave up that could challenge fibo extensions at .6307 (138.2% of .6190-.6265) and .6325 (161.8%) in the near term.  A break below .6189 severely reduces probability that the presented scenario would play out and the 61.8% fibo of the .5991-.6445 bull wave at .6165 would become support along with the 5/22 low at .6142.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.