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Monster Rally in Stock Market
By Harry Boxer | Published  06/15/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
Monster Rally in Stock Market

The market had about as strong a rally as you can get price-wise with support from the underlying technicals.

The day started out with a large gap-up that immediately broke the short-term downtrend and then had a strong surge that continued all morning.  Just before lunch the markets peaked out for the morning and went into a consolidation mode.  After lunch they tried a rally that didnââ,¬â"¢t take hold and rolled over to new mid-day pullback lows, but that didnââ,¬â"¢t get too far.  They immediately turned around with a strong upside thrust that lasted for the rest of the day with a vengeance.  The afternoon rally was even stronger than the morning rally, and only in the last 5-10 minutes did the market get some profit-taking that pulled them off the session highs.

Net on the day the Dow surged back through 11,000, closing at 11,015, up 198.  That was about 21 points off the earlier highs, so at one point it was up nearly 220 points.  The S&P 500 was up a whopping 26 and closed just 2 Ã,½ points off the high.  The NDX was up nearly 43, about 3 Ã,½ points the late high.  The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) had a monster day, up 4 Ã,½ percent, or 18 Ã,¼ points, and that certainly helped Nasdaq have a big day.

The technicals confirmed the advance and how, with advance-declines positive by nearly 27 to 6 on New York and 25 to 6 on Nasdaq.  Upside volume was nearly 1.9 billion, with downside volume just 84.5 million, about a 22 to 1 positive ratio on advancing over declining volume, one of the biggest pluralities weââ,¬â"¢ve ever seen.  Nasdaq was similar with more than 2.1 billion traded to the upside, and just 135 million to the downside, around a 16 to 1 positive ratio.

So, those technical readings ought to be convincing that this is a clear thrust to the upside, probably ending the recent downtrend.  However, I would expect to see some backing and filling and profit-taking tomorrow, but this thing can certainly extend.  One word of caution:  The Nasdaq 100 closed right on its 6-week declining tops resistance line at the top of the down-channel with the S&P closing well below that level and at formidable lateral price resistance around the 1260 area.  So weââ,¬â"¢ll have to see what kind of follow-through we get and what kind of technical underpinnings it comes with, but certainly an impressive day technically.

TheTechTrader.com board was about as strong as you can get, with 20 up & just one down.  Multiple point gainers today included Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) with an impressive 5 Ã,½ point gain on 3 Ã,½ million shares, a super thrust to the upside.  Baidu.com (BIDU) gained more than 3 points on 2 Ã,½ million. 

Apple Computer (AAPL) came back strongly, particularly in the afternoon, closed up 1.77, 3 points off the low.  Dynamic Materials Corp. (BOOM) advanced 2.15, Broadcom (BRCM) 1.80, DXP Enterprises (DXPE) 1.55, PW Eagle (PWEI) 1.38, QCOM 1.54, and Travelzoo (TZOO), last weekââ,¬â"¢s Chart of the Week, up 1.39.  The Qs (QQQQ) were up 1.02, the SMH 1.04 and the GLD gold tracking stock ETF up 1.68.

In the lower priced sector Zevex (ZVXI) gained 1.14, a strong percentage gain there.  Medifast (MED) snapped back 1.09.

The only declining stock on our board today was Pacific Ethanol (PEIX), down 22 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, as indicated earlier, the indices had a tremendous technical thrust to the upside today, coming off an extremely oversold condition from the day before yesterday, and the following thrust took out a couple layers of resistance but closed right near key overhead resistance.  If we get a strong follow-through, we can say with some assurance that a bottom is in, but weââ,¬â"¢ll see how it goes tomorrow.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.