EUR/USD - The EUR/USD holds above 1.2600 after gaining for the past two days.  Probability favors a continued rally to the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.2976-1.2529 / 138.2% fibo extension of 1.2529-1.2604 at 1.2696/99 (also 5/26 daily low).  A break there encounters the 161.8% fibo extension at 1.2725.  The rally off of the 1.2529 low has been slow and uninspiring as evidenced by slight negative divergence with RSI on the hourly.  Support is at the 50 day SMA at 1.2616 as well as today's low at 1.2583.

USD/JPY - USD/JPY has slowly retreated from the 6/13 high at 115.41.  If yesterday's high was a top, then weakness should persist until at least the 38.2% fibo of 111.33-115.45 at 113.87.  Other targets include the 138.2% and 161.8% fibo extensions of 115.44-114.44 at 113.98 and 113.75.  CCI is > 100 and thus extreme to the upside but a decline below 100 would reinforce bearishness.  On the other hand - resistance rests at the 6/13 high of 115.44 and strength beyond there damages the cautious bearish stance and exposes the 200 day SMA at 115.84.

GBP/USD - Cable has slowly rallied to the 38.2% fibo of 1.8879-1.8315 at 1.8530.  Continued strength encounters fibo extensions of 1.8315-1.8453 at 1.8540 (138.2%) and 1.8573 (161.8%).  Like the other majors - the wave count (A-B-C correction from 1.9025), the fibo support (38.2% of 1.7229-1.9025 at 1.8344) and the divergence with price at the 1.8315 low on 6/13 all favor the position that a low is already in place.  Further, two days ago marked the 21st  (Fibonacci number) day since the top at 1.9025 and turning points often occur at Fibonacci intervals from major tops and bottoms.

USD/CHF - USD/CHF has slowly declined to the confluence of the 10 day SMA / yesterday's low at 1.2262/70.  The hourly shows a short term triple bottom at 1.2270.  A break below there exposes the 38.2% fibo of 1.1919-1.2406 at 1.2220.  Like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, USD/CHF has held below the 50 day SMA (above in the case of EUR and Cable) - which is resistance at 1.2378.  Hourly oscillators favor a continued move down as the indicator has just dipped below the 50 midpoint. 
 
USD/CAD - USD/CAD's rally was rejected at 1.1173 and the pair has since hovered near/within the 1.1130/40 zone.  A very short term head and shoulders reversal pattern is evident on the hourly following the rally from 1.0960-1.1173.   This favors the opinion that wave structure favors a bearish bias with the 1.1243 high on 6/8 marking the end of a 3 wave correction and thus the subsequent decline to 1.0960 is likely the beginning of a new downtrend.  As such, any strength is viewed as a correction of weakness.  Only a rally above 1.1243 would negate bearish implications.  Resistance remains at the 78.6% fibo of the 1.1243-1.10960 decline at 1.1182.

AUD/USD - AUD/USD rallied back above the .7400 handle following the doji on 6/14.  The large correction of strength to .7791 may be over as evidenced by positive divergence with oscillators on the hourly at the 6/14 low of .7344 along with the mentioned doji candle.  The C wave decline from .7652 does look like a full 5 waves.  Thus, the bias is cautiously bullish above .7344 but a break lower exposes projections at the .7315/25 area.  The 61.8% fibo of .7014-.7791 comes in at .7315 and wave C would equal wave A (.7791-.7465) at .7525.  Further, the 161.8% fibo of .7390-.7502 is at .7320.  A continued bounce targets the 6/12 low at .7453 and then the confluence of the 6/9 high / 38.2% fibo of .7791-.7344 at .7503/15.  Hourly RSI has risen above the midpoint of 50 after forming a series of positive divergences with price at recent lows.

NZD/USD - Kiwi is little changed but we are still looking for a bounce towards the upper end of the triangle (on the daily) near .6400. The decline off of the .6265 high held fibo support at .6206 (78.6% of .6190-.6265).  Therefore, wave structure places us in the beginning of a third wave up that could challenge fibo extensions at .6307 (138.2% of .6190-.6265) and .6325 (161.8%) in the near term.  A break below .6189 severely reduces probability that the presented scenario would play out and the 61.8% fibo of the .5991-.6445 bull wave at .6165 would become support along with the 5/22 low at .6142.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.