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Euro Looks Weak Against Commodity Currencies
By Jamie Saettele | Published  06/16/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Euro Looks Weak Against Commodity Currencies

EUR/AUD - EUR/AUD has rallied off of the 6/12 low at 1.6810 to just above the 20 day SMA at 1.7022.  However, a large head and shoulders reversal pattern that began on 5/22 favors a bearish bias going forward.  Daily oscillators are mixed as momentum is negative and MACD slopes down, but CCI and RSI are just above their midpoints of 0 and 50.  Probably most revealing is a trendline that dates to synthetic prices in October 1998 that resisted price on 6/7 and 6/8 at 1.7352.  The 6/14 high at 1.7122 is initial resistance and a break above there would distort the mentioned head and shoulders pattern.

EUR/CAD - After tumbling below 1.4000, EUR/CAD has rallied to the confluence of the 10 day SMA / 50 day SMA at 1.4092/1.4145.  Yesterday's reverse hammer was particularly bearish but the pair has rallied back near yesterday's high of 1.4112.  A break above there would negate the bearish implications from the reverse hammer and expose the 20 day SMA at 1.4145.  Oscillators on the hourly are falling from near overbought levels and therefore favor shorts.

EUR/NZD - EUR/NZD trades in a bearish descending triangle that began on 5/15.  The pair has rallied for 4 straight days but the choppy and slow rally has led to negative divergence with oscillators on the hourly - which reinforces a bearish view.  A short term double top from yesterday and today's highs at 2.0359 is initial resistance with a break above exposing the 78.6% fibo of 2.0574-1.9894 at 2.0359.  The confluence of the 10 and 20 day SMAs just below at 2.0254/61 serves as initial support.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.