Financials
Stocks: Stocks continue to be very volatile, which is another sign that we are in the middle of a trend change. As I have said here in past issues I firmly believe that we are beginning a bear market in stocks that will last for at least the rest of this year if not significantly longer. While we may continue to bounce slightly higher in the short term, I am using any large bounces as a selling opportunity. Buy or spread puts on rallies and or sell calls on rallies.
Bonds: Bonds broke down as I feared. The FOMC meeting at the end of the month is setting up to be a wild one. While many people are arguing that Mr. Bernanke should keep his mouth shut, I would argue that he should keep â,"jawboningâ, the market. I think he is wisely trying to prepare the market for what he knows is coming. Rather than have the market react to it in shock. Whatâ,"s coming are more signs of inflation and a Fed that has little choice but to continue to raise rates in a effort to cool that inflation. Look for continued weakness in bonds as we get closer to the FOMC meeting on the 28th and 29th of this month.
Energies
Crude did stabilize near $70 this week and we also formed a perfect double bottom on the daily chart. I expect to see this bull market resume and continue to see $75 as a near term target. Natural gas finally reared its head this past week and I think this sleeping bull will be very active now that it has been woken up. The spread between Crude oil and natural gas is unusually wide and is very likely to narrow over the coming days and weeks.
Metals
Metals did start to support out this week but not before a wild sell off early in the week. This sell off was very violent and did quite a bit of damage to small traders. This sell off is a clear sign to me that we have reached a support level in metals for the near term. I am now long both gold and silver via calls and expect to see metals continue to recover this coming week.
Grains
Grains overall tried to stage some rallies this week. I continue to be bullish and as I mentioned last week I expect a substantial rally in grains this season. In the near term we will likely continue the two sided trade that we have seen in recent weeks. I continue to advocate buying and or spreading calls in grains for the September contracts.
Softs
OJ has completed an almost perfect bullish consolidation. Spread 160-180 calls for November. Cocoa continues to struggle. This bull is still sleeping but when he wakes watch out! Last week I mentioned spreading the 1500 calls against the 1700 calls, I continue to recommend this spread as a great way to be long with limited risk. Coffee has still held support at 95 but just barely. Aggressive traders can still buy here with stops below 92.00. Spreading 100 calls against 120 calls is a great way to trade the long side in Coffee while keeping risks limited and defined. Sugar is bouncing albeit slowly. This market is likely to begin a new bull wave but we could drift sideways for some time before we see any real rally. Cotton continues to disappoint. I continue to be a bull but one that is becoming more and more impatient with this market. I have heard some Cotton traders say that cotton is the worst bull market to trade. I would agree this market while bullish is very prone to the two steps forward one step back dance and until we get a better dancing partner I see this â,"Tangoâ, continuing.
Meats
Meats continue to be the wild bull of the bunch. I expect to see a continuation of the rallies we saw this past week in the week ahead. All I can really say here is buy. This market is in full bull mode and the path of least resistance remains up. Spreading calls is the best way to trade this bull with limited risk.
Forex Currencies
EUR/USD: While I am not yet ready to say that this market is back to itâ,"s bullish ways, I am expecting that to be the case in the near future. Until we get closer to the FOMC meeting on the 28th and 29th of this month we will likely see a range bound market. I am long 1.28 calls for July.
USD/CHF: The Swissy did find itâ,"s way to 1.24 and then like magic turned and began a sell off as expected. I expect this market to fall to 1.22 sometime this coming week. From there we may drift a bit but then ultimately break down towards 1.20.
GBP/USD: The cable did in fact slide to 1.83 and then it to magically bounced and continues to do so. A move towards 1.86 is in the cards but here too we may drift ahead of the Fed. Meeting so be cautious.
USD/JPY: This market went right through my target from last week and kept on going. This is a perfect example of why trailing stops are always a better option that targets. I expect a sharp reversal in this market this coming week that pulls us back below 114.
AUD/USD: This market continues to wear me out. I had expected this market to recover by now but it just does not want to play nice. I continue to expect a bounce and now more than ever I see it happening very soon. To play this safely I would use calls instead of contracts.
USD/CAD: Got long this week when we fell below 1.10 and am still long. I am trailing my stop by 45 pips so it is now working at 1.1193. We are near the upper end of the range and I am not yet convinced that we will break out so â,"fadersâ, could try some short trades up here.
Matt Odom is the Managing Partner and Energy Analyst and Derek Frey is Head Trader at Odom & Frey Futures & Options.
Risk Disclaimer
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options is not suitable for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.