Although our normal focus in the Sector Spotlight is indeed on the major market sectors, the market's recent lack of net movement has allowed is some time to look at a couple of individual industries. There are rarely any ETF's or trade-able indices for a specific industry, but for individual stock positions, you may find that the industry trend is even more potent and influential than the sector trends we usually examine. Keep in mind that some of the indices we reference could be a little obscure, so we'll throw out some individual company names to help provide some context.
Tires
Although the Dow Jones Tire Index (DJUSTY) managed to successfully counter each recent selloff with a bounce, the selling finally overwhelmed the buying effort about three weeks ago. It was a move a long time in the coming, but now that the old trend lines have been decisively broken, the odds favor a continued deterioration here.....in the long run. On the weekly chart below, you can see high the higher highs and higher lows have slowly rolled over into lower highs and lower lows. In the short-term, we're looking for this index to bounce back up rather sharply, which is actually a trade-worthy scenario. But in the bigger picture, we think this newly-established bearish pattern will drive these stocks lower, once the impending bounce is completed. Previous bounces have been as big as 20 points for this relatively low-leveled index, although we don't think the index is capable of anything quite that big at this point. Famous names in this index include Goodyear (GT), BridgeStone (BRDCY - PK), and Cooper (CTB).
Dow Jones Tire Index (DJUSTY) - Weekly
Coal
After running away in late April and early May, there was concern that the coal industry had just been through a blow-off top, which signals the end of a long-term run with one, final, exhaustive push. That surge and subsequent pullback, though, has passed, and the coal stocks are back on the slow-and-steady bullish path. As such, we're looking for the Dow Jones Coal Index (DJUSCL) to keep on riding its long-term trend lines to new highs, as it has been doing for years. Currently at 374.37, we'll set a long-term target of 520. Stops on this bullish bias come with any weekly close (any Friday's closing price) under that key support level, currently at 305. As for why the coal stocks are in such high demand, the answer is still 'high oil prices'. But even if crude prices do ease up, we don't think these coal stocks are going to sink. Now that the global economy has been through a little sticker-shock with oil prices, coal has become a very viable and desirable alternative, so the interest in them as an energy source should be sustained. This industry includes Arch Coal (ACI), CONSOL Energy (CNX), and Massey Energy (MEE). All of those stocks are down enormously today, which is actually a chance to get in at much better prices than the ones we saw just last week.
Dow Jones Coal Index (DJUSCL) - Weekly
Auto Manufacturers
The last few years have been sheer torture for the American auto manufacturers, with the average stock in this group losing more than 50% between the peak in January of 2004 and the lows just hit in April. However, the chart of the Dow Jones Automobile Index (DJUSAU) indicates that the long drought may finally be over. Since March, these stocks have gone through a technical consolidation. That just means that the selling has ceased, but buying has not begun. Evidence of that kind of trading is seen in the rather tall bars we've seen since early this year, but with very little net movement. Just think of it as the final transferring from the sellers to the buyers. The reason we're excited about the potential bullish move is two-fold. First, nobody wants the U.S. auto-makers right now. So, from a contrarian viewpoint, they're at a likely bottom. Second, they're very close to crossing above their 200 day line (green) as well as a long-term resistance line (red). Since neither chart event has happened yet, this is only something we're keeping on our radar. But if we see this index break above 165, that could be enough of a catalyst to revive these stocks. Clearly this is a high-risk/high-reward scenario. The usual suspects: Ford (F) General Motors (GM), and Daimler-Chrysler (DMX).
Dow Jones Automobile Index (DJUSAU)
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.