EUR/USD - EUR/USD declined to below the 50 day SMA yesterday and the 10 day SMA crossed below the 50 day SMA for the first time since 3/20. The declines have been more convincing than the rallies but it looks like we are due for a bounce in the short term. Hourly RSI has risen from below 30 and has just crossed the 50 midpoint and last week's candle (hammer) suggests a bounce at the very least. Resistance is at the 61.8% fibo of 1.2670-1.2551 at 1.2624 as well as the 38.2% fibo of 1.2976-1.2529 at 1.2699. Support still stems from the 6/13 low at 1.2529 and a break below would expose the 50% fibo of 1.1825-1.2971 at 1.2399.
USD/JPY - After a push to 115.75 yesterday, USD/JPY formed massive negative divergence and the pair has since fallen back below the 115.00 handle. Oscillators are reaching oversold figures though on the hourly and thus a bounce at near term support defined by the 6/16 low at 114.55 is a possibility. A break below there would target the confluence of the 20 and 50 SMA's at 113.56/65. Also of note is CCI crossing below 100 today - an occurrence that often marks turning points.
GBP/USD - Cable is similar to EUR/USD in that it continues to bounce off of recent lows. The rally has been corrective in nature but could persist until resistance at the 6/19 high at 1.8479 or the 78.6% fibo of 1.8556-1.8369 at 1.8516. The outside reversal candle (pair took out previous week's high, low and closed below the previous week's close) from two weeks ago still threatens bulls over the longer term. Support is at yesterday's low of 1.8369 and a break below would challenge the 6/13 low at 1.8315.
USD/CHF - The recent decline is USD/CHF from the 6/19 high at 1.2430 is also corrective in nature but if it persists could test the 38.2% fibo of 1.2262-1.2430 at 1.2366. Favoring a bullish argument is price closing above the 50 day SMA yesterday for the first time since 4/3. Still, yesterday's high failing at the upper Bollinger band on the daily - just above the 38.2% fibo of 1.3235-1.1919 at 1.2421 - and declining oscillators on the hourly all favor a continued correction of strength.
USD/CAD - USD/CAD rallies continue to fail at a ceiling of resistance near 1.1252 with the most recent attempt yesterday (high at 1.1252). The decline from 1.1252 has been slow and corrective with a very long wick on the hourly giving scope to a rally. Immediate resistance is at the series of daily highs near 1.1250 but a break above there could trigger a massive short covering rally towards the 50% fibo of 1.1771-1.0927 at 1.1348. Both daily and hourly oscillators are rising from within neutral territory and thus favor longs.
AUD/USD - AUD/USD rallied to the .7400 handle (also the 10 day SMA) in Tokyo trading earlier today and has since fallen off a bit as RSI has dropped from overbought levels on the hourly, which favors shorts in the near term. Support is at yesterday's low of .7357 and the 6/14 low at .7344. A break below there exposes the 61.8% fibo of .7014-.7791 at .7313. The longer term the chart - the more bearish the picture. Last week, the pair broke below the both the 20 and 40 week SMAs and the monthly chart shows a massive reverse hammer candle on last month's candle along with a multi year head and shoulders reversal.
NZD/USD - Kiwi is similar to Aussie in that the short term momentum oscillators are declining from overbought levels. The pair does appear to be in an ending 5th wave down and the pair could go to the confluence of the 78.6% fibo of .5991-.6443 / 138.2% extension of .6428-.6229 at .6078/88. Still, the pair would have to contest with support at the low from yesterday / 61.8% fibo of .5991-.6443 at .6149/64. Any bounce from support would contend with today's high at .6206.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.