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Japanese Yen Crosses Mixed
By Jamie Saettele | Published  06/20/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Japanese Yen Crosses Mixed

CAD/JPY- CAD/JPY has fallen from the 104.26 high on 6/13 to 102.50 and last week's candle at the top of a large triangle is a bearish reversal pattern.  Daily oscillators are also bearish as CCI has declined below 100.  Hourly oscillators have bounced from below 30 after forming positive divergence with price and the pair has traded back above former support trendline (see hourly chart below).  A continued bounce is towards the 61.8% fibo of 104.27-102.16 is certainly a possibility.  A resumption of recent weakness encounters the confluence of today's low / 38.2% of 98.25-104.27 at 101.98/102.17.

CHF/JPY - We mentioned last week that "With the proximity of the upper end of the triangle, risk can be significantly limited to the upside."  The pair has indeed fallen this week following the negative divergence at recent highs with momentum oscillators.  The pair does appear to have completed a 5 wave sequence down and RSI is ascending from below 30 on the hourly.  This suggests that we are in for a short term bounce.  Resistance is at the 38.2% fibo of 93.68-92.46 at 92.93.  The pair currently trades right at its 20 day SMA of 92.67.

NZD/JPY- Kiwi also has gained against the Yen after breaking through a downward sloping channel a week and a half ago.  Also evident on the daily is an inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern.  The right shoulder is possibly forming right now.  A decline back into the downward sloping channel encounters support at the 6/2 low of 70.09.  Resistance going forward is at the 6/12 high of 72.35.  In the shorter term - a continued bounce from the 61.8% fibo of the 70.09-72.35 bull wave at 70.96 is favored as RSI is rising above 30 on the hourly.  RSI is declining from above 70 and thus favors shorts in the near term.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.