Swiss Real Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY) (07:15 GMT; 03:15 EST)
Consensus: 0.9%
Previous: 0.7%

Outlook: The annual real retail sales figure out of Switzerland is expected to advance 0.9% in April, after rising 0.7% the month before. Lending a hand to the figure should have been improving consumption in the private sector.   A positive result from this read would only reiterate the growth figures seen in the first quarter, including stronger than expected GDP growth of 0.9% and export gains of 4.3%. Business and consumer sentiment prospects also looked optimistic, as the KOF leading indicator surged to 2.30 in May from 2.12 in April and consumer confidence rose to +7 in the second quarter from +2 in the first, denoting the highest reading since the third quarter of 2001.  As domestic expansion pushes ahead of the Euro Zone, the Swiss economy is likely to move full steam ahead towards an estimated 2.0% annual rate of growth and further encourage steady rate hikes at each of the quarterly SNB meetings at least through the end of the year.

Previous:  Swiss retail sales rose a real 0.7% in March from a 0.4% pace in April.  However, when the figure was adjusted for inflation and shopping days, the figure declined 6.8% from a year earlier.  The first drop since May 2005, weaker sales over the month were ironically the result of the Easter holidays.  Traditionally a strong sales period, Easter had actually fallen within April this year, as opposed to the March celebration last year.  Near-record oil prices also had a hand in containing household spending.  The figures were not interpreted as being devastating, though, as other data, including unemployment figures, improved across the nation.

Canadian Retail Sales (APR) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
                    (Headline)   (ex Autos)
Consensus:       0.4%         0.5%
Previous:           1.5%         0.7%

Outlook: Canadian retail sales are expected to continue their ascent following the previous month's record numbers, although growth appears to be leveling off.  Indicators generally related to retail activity painted a mixed picture for growth.  Beginning with the positive, employment levels held strong ticking slightly higher to a 6.4% jobless
rate, just above 30-year lows.   Employment levels encourages spending, a portion of which will end up at retailers, as more citizens have disposable incomes and are more confident in turning it back into the economy.  The housing sector, against which many Canadian determine their wealth and ability to lend, was mixed.  Housing starts, declined 13.3%, undoing March gains; while prices over the same month actually surged by 1.0%, the quickest pace in 17 years.  While the latter suggests continued demand for building & home supplies in the future, the actual starts could foretell trouble.  Finally, automotive sales, often a weighty component of retail sales, dropped 0.7% in April as gasoline prices became unbearable for many.
 
Previous:  A 1.5% increase in retail sales for March pushed sales to a record $32.1 billion while boosting first quarter sales to 2.2%.  The automotive sector outperformed all other sectors over the period, leaping 3.3% and further bringing up the overall average as all other sectors combined managed a 0.7% increase from February to March.  Food and beverage stores posted a minor -0.1% decline, but the remaining sectors managed increases.  Further, when adjusted for the strong pace of inflation retail sales actually grew 1.2%.  Regionally, Alberta produced the biggest month over month increase in overall sales, a rise 5.2%, while Ontario posted the largest real gains.

Canadian Leading Indicators (YoY) (MAY) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.4%
Previous:   0.5%

Outlook:  May leading indicators are expected to contract slightly, although there was enviable strength in a few of the more important component gauges.  Likely the largest contributor to the composite read will be that of business and service level employment.  Over the period, 97,000 new hires helped to push the jobless rate down to 6.1% of the population.  This represents the lowest level since 1978 and is a significant badge for confidence.  Household spending, another major subindex, has yet to post any reliable figures for the salient period, however, support on both sides of the sentiment scales were present in the form of strong employment and inexorable gas prices.  The market gauge, which follows the benchmark S&P/TSX equity index as a gauge, is likely to produce one of the worst outputs for the composite after having fallen 3.6% for the month.  Also, May housing starts slowed for the fourth consecutive month following the largest monthly jump in housing prices in 17 years.

Previous:  Six out of the ten April Canadian leading components improved, with leading the composite read to rise 0.5%.  This was only a slight decline from March's year-and-a-half high 0.6%, and was a sign of continued, robust strength.  Consumer spending led the increase, supported to a lesser extent by stocks & the financial sector, along with durable goods.  Equities continued to improve although at a slower rate than in the beginning of the year as mining surpassed energy as the biggest gainers.  Durable goods posted their largest gain in six months, which were in turn largely offset by the decline in housing sales. Continuing its recent poor performance was the manufacturing sector as a historically expensive currency and booming domestic demand for cheaper foreign goods created unfavorable trade conditions.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.