Energies
A relatively choppy trade this week as the market attempts to fight sub-$50 prices.  Overall the market remains weak, confirmed by reversal days like today.  Continue to sell calls on $2 bounces and puts on $4 sell offs as premium collection is the most effective way to play the energy markets for the time being.  Natural gas is setting up for a breakout, and I like a short term swing trade of buying June gas with stops below 6.42. 

Financials
A strong stock market came as anticipated and should be running out of steam shortly.  Today’s employment data was quite bullish, especially taking into consideration the revisions from the prior two months, but I believe we will see a ‘sell the news’ affect by mid-week next week.  Get short on a possible Monday rally.  Bonds should have collapsed today, but the strength is reminiscent of a bull stock market when negative news was casually dismissed by the market.  Bonds need to break 113-14 for me to get excited, but I remain a fundamental bear.  The dollar bounced as expected and should be set for a run to test the 8550 mark next week.  Look for a quick drop in the Canadian otherwise my bear outlook is wrong.  Today’s break of trend line resistance on a daily is only bullish if we hold it Monday, otherwise the market may erase the move and turn bearish once again.  The euro is a strong sell.

Grains
Grain volatility remained low this week and the market was quite choppy ahead of next week’s crop data.  I recommend buying grains with puts as protection ahead of next Thursday.  Corn and wheat remain great value plays, while beans offer a good OTM call buying opportunity to play a volatility spike.  Oats is a buy.

Meats
Cattle continues to lack momentum despite my gut screaming sell.  Continue to accumulate puts ahead of increased volatility and a move below 80.  Hogs and bellies remain a long term sell.

Metals
Gold volatility did pick up this week and the bear break has begun, but the volatility wasn’t as much as I had hoped for and the market should be under $420 if the price break came as I had seen it.  That said, I remain a cautious short term bear and a confident long term bear.  Look for a break below $425 to resume the momentum we had this morning.  Silver is ahead of the curve and shorts should be weary if gold doesn’t follow through, as silver will have to rally to catch up.  Palladium remains a buy with stops below 175.  Copper has a long way to go to be a short.

Softs
OJ weakness found buying in light volume this week and needs a big reversal swing next week to avoid some ugly patterns developing.  I recommend buying dirt cheap calls as a risk defined way of playing this market long.  Coffee volatility is heating up, and today’s end of day rally should put the bulls in control next week.  Look for a swift move above 1.30 for confirmation of the short term continuation of the bull rally.  The market remains susceptible to a big slam down, so protect your positions.  Cocoa is a technical sell but the gut says buy the value while volatility remains low.  Cotton is still a short, and you should get on my bandwagon now, because I know you didn’t bite at 58 - we are heading below 40.  Sugar is a buy with stops at or below 807.  Lumber is still a sell. 

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.