EUR/USD - EUR/USD has rallied but failed (at least temporarily) at the 61.8% fibo of 1.2670-1.2551 at 1.2624.  The move up is corrective in nature as well.  The structure is 3 waves up from 1.2540 and oscillators on the hourly are beginning to turn over and head back down.  As such, prices appear headed towards today's low at 1.2577 with a break lower targeting yesterday's low at 1.2540.  Any strength must contend first with the 78.6% fibo of 12670-1.2540 at 1.2642.

USD/JPY - The choppy decline to back below the 115.00 handle has resulted in positive divergence with oscillators at today's 114.50 low - giving scope to another test of the 115.00 handle if the support from the 6/16 low / today's low at 114.38/55 holds.  A break lower probes a tentative trendline at around 114.00.  The bearish argument strengthens significantly on a break below the trendline and the next target would then be the 61.8% fibo of 108.96-115.75 at 111.56.  Initial resistance is the 6/16 high at 115.18.

GBP/USD - The cable rally from 1.8372 has been uninspiring and resistance at a downward sloping line from the 6/5 high at 1.8879 has held - keeping intact the prospect of lower prices and a test of the 6/20 low at 1.8372.  A break below there exposes the 6/13 low at 1.8315.  Hourly oscillators are declining and favor a short term bearish view.  The pair currently trades at support from the confluence of the 10 and 50 day SMAs at 1.8425/27.

USD/CHF - The recent decline is USD/CHF from the 6/19 high at 1.2430 is also corrective in nature and has tested our measured objective at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2262-1.2430 at 1.2366.  Favoring a bullish argument is price closing above the 50 day SMA two days ago for the first time since 4/3.  Further, support at a short term trendline from 6/5 currently holds.  A break below targets the 6/16 low at 1.2265 but the proximity of the trendline limits risk for longs.

USD/CAD - USD/CAD rallies continue to fail at a ceiling of resistance near 1.1252 with the most recent attempt yesterday (high at 1.1252).  The decline from 1.1252 picked up steam but has stalled at the 38.2% fibo of 1.0960-1.1248 at 1.1138.  With a triple top at the 1.1250 area - it appears that probability favors a return to the lower end of the range near the lows from 5/31 and 6/12 at 1.0927/60.  Immediate resistance is at the series of daily highs near 1.1250 but a break above there could trigger a massive short covering rally towards the 50% fibo of 1.1771-1.0927 at 1.1348.

AUD/USD - AUD/USD is very little changed from yesterday.  RSI continues to drop from overbought levels on the hourly, which favors shorts in the near term.  Support is at the 6/19 low of .7357 and the 6/14 low at .7344.  A break below there exposes the 61.8% fibo of .7014-.7791 at .7313.  The longer term the chart - the more bearish the picture.  Last week, the pair broke below the both the 20 and 40 week SMAs and the monthly chart shows a massive reverse hammer candle on last month's candle along with a multi year head and shoulders reversal.

NZD/USD - Kiwi is also very little changed.  The pair does appear to be in an ending 5th wave down and the pair could go to the confluence of the 78.6% fibo of .5991-.6443 / 138.2% extension of .6428-.6229 at .6078/88.  Still, the pair would have to contest with support at the 6/19 low / 61.8% fibo of .5991-.6443 at .6149/64.  Any bounce from support would contend with today's high at .6206.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.