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Dollar Exerts Dominance
By Jamie Saettele | Published  06/22/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Dollar Exerts Dominance

EUR/USD - EUR/USD has rallied but failed at 1.2670.  As we mentioned yesterday, the move up looked corrective in nature and the structure was 3 waves up from 1.2540.  The decline has looked rather impulsive and support comes in at the 61.8% fibo of 1.2540-1.2677 at 1.2593.  Hourly oscillators are nearing oversold levels following the recent rapid decline.  The 50 day SMA has held as solid resistance the past 4 days and currently sits at 1.2655 - just below today's high at 1.2677.

USD/JPY - The choppy decline to back below the 115.00 handle resulted in positive divergence with oscillators at the 6/21 low of 114.38 - and the pair has since rallied 100 pips and is nearing resistance at the 78.6% fibo of 115.75-114.38 at 115.46.  A break above there exposes the high on 6/19 at 115.75.  A tentative trendline still sits at 114.00.  Any bearish argument strengthens significantly on a break below the trendline and the next target would then be the 61.8% fibo of 108.96-115.75 at 111.56.

GBP/USD - The cable rally from 1.8372 was uninspiring and resistance at a downward sloping line from the 6/5 high at 1.8879 held - keeping sending the pair lower towards the 6/13 low at 1.8313.  A break below there exposes the 5/1 low at 1.8203.  Hourly oscillators are now in oversold territory and favor at least a short term bounce / consolidation at support.  Any strength encounters resistance at the 6/19 low of 1.8369 and the 6/21 low of 1.8408.

USD/CHF - The recent decline is USD/CHF from the 6/19 high at 1.2430 was also corrective in nature and the dollar rally has taken the pair to the 1.2400 handle.  The pair is nearing resistance at the confluence of the 6/20 high / 38.2% fibo of 1.3236-1.1919 at 1.2419/35.  A break above there could test the 5/2 high at 1.2447.  Immediate support is at the 6/21 high of 1.2373.

USD/CAD - USD/CAD rallies continue to be thwarted at a ceiling of resistance near 1.1252 with the most recent attempt two days ago (high at 1.1252).  The recent decline from 1.1252 ended stalled at 1.1035 and the succeeding rally has unfolded in what looks like a 3 wave correction (so far).  The pair does trade right at resistance from the 38.2% fibo of 1.1253-1.1035 at 1.1118 with more strength potentially taking the pair towards the 61.8% fibo at 1.1169.

AUD/USD - AUD/USD is very little changed from yesterday.  RSI continues to drop from overbought levels on the hourly, which favors shorts in the near term.  Support is at the 6/19 low of .7357 and the 6/14 low at .7344.  A break below there exposes the 61.8% fibo of .7014-.7791 at .7313.  The longer term the chart - the more bearish the picture.  Last week, the pair broke below the both the 20 and 40 week SMAs and the monthly chart shows a massive reverse hammer candle on last month's candle along with a multi year head and shoulders reversal.

NZD/USD - Kiwi has plummeted, breaking below the 6/19 low at .6149.  The next area of support would be the 78.6% fibo of .5991-.6442 at .6088.  The 10 day SMA has held as resistance the past week and currently is at .6213.  Positive divergence with oscillators on the hourly gives scope to a contra move.  Resistance comes in at the mentioned 6/19 low of .6149.  The dollar rally has looked impulsive when compared to the anti-dollar move - favoring a bullish dollar bias (bearish NZD/USD bias).

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.