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Market Weakens Intraday but Holds Stronger Weekly Support
By Toni Hansen | Published  05/9/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Market Weakens Intraday but Holds Stronger Weekly Support

 

Good day! After a rather slow week of trading, the market finished with a nap. Friday saw a lot of chop and very few intraday patterns as you can tell with just a quick glance at the 5 minute charts below. The market gapped up a bit initially, but hit resistance with that gap right at Thursday highs, making it difficult to hold onto those gains. Selling pressure hit right away and the market began to gradually close the gap.

 

The market saw a great deal of back and forth action throughout the morning, finally breaking lower into noon after the NASDAQ held the lower end of the morning range as volume decreased. The move was enough to bring the NASDAQ back into Thursday's close where the market also found support at the 5 minute 200 sma in the SP500 and Dow Jones Ind. Ave.

The 12:00 ET reversal period held very well, and even though volume was pretty light overall, the spike intraday over noon helped to turn the market over into the afternoon. Initially though, the pace wasn't very strong coming off support levels. It didn't start to pick up until just before 13:30 ET. This move brought the indices back into the zone of the morning range where we started to see more chop once again that lasted into the close.

Although the market is stalling intraday and rounding off at 60 minute highs, there is still some room to move before we see a larger daily correction to the rally that took place off last month's lows. The 50 week simple moving average is the next strong daily resistance. It's hitting in the SP500 already, but remains a magnet in the NASDAQ.

Intraday pace is pretty weak after the last two trading days, so my bias is weaker on the 60 minute charts, but I plan on remaining open to the possibility of a better test of the larger resistance. Such a test would actually lower risk on shorts because it would flush out the sellers as well as create more room to move before the market would hit support again, such as the 20 day sma. I am not aggressively bearish in the short term, however, because, while the intraday pace is turning over to favor selling, the market is at a great deal of support on the weekly and monthly charts. I found very few short patterns on the daily charts in my weekend scanning, which also makes more cautious on trades favoring that direction.

PENN from the 25th or 2nd (depending on what trigger you used) has a target of $35. Trailing stops no lower than a break in $31.50. AAP has continued to make new highs and ASKJ remains of interest. Some stocks to keep an eye on this week are BBI, VAR, ALGN and ADTN long and UNP and CCU short.

Economic Reports and Events
May 09: Wholesale Inventories for Mar (10:00 am)
May 10: -
May 11: Trade Balance for Mar (8:30 am), Treasury Budget for Apr (2:00 pm)
May 12: Initial Claims 05/07 (8:30 am), Retail Sales for Apr (8:30 am), Retail Sales ex-auto for Apr (8:30 am)
May 13: Business Inventories for Mar (8:30 am), Export prices ex-ag. For Apr (8:30 am), Import Prices ex-oil for Apr (8:30 am), Mich Sentiment-Prel. For May (9:45 am)
May 16: NY Empire State Index for May (8:30 am)
May 17: Building Permits for Apr (8:30 am), Core PPI for Apr (8:30 am), Housing Starts for Apr (8:30 am), PPI for Apr (8:30 am), Capacity Utilization for Apr (9:15 am), Industrial Production for Apr (9:15 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stocks' earnings dates before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
May 09: AL (?), CRAY (?), DCEL (A), DYN (B), FSH (A), FTI (A), GNTA (?), IIP (?), MEDX (?), PCLN (A), PVX (B), SONS (?), TSO (?)
May 10: ANR (B), ASYT (A), CE (?), CQB (B), CSCO (A), EAGL (B), KFX (?), MDG (A), MSSN (B), MYGN (B), NPSP (?), NTLI (02:00 am ET), SRP (B), MAY (?)
May 11: ACXM (A), SIL (?), FD (?), NAPS (?), DIS (A)
May 12: ALTI (?), AEOS (B), ADI (A), DELL (A), DT (02:00 am ET), BIZ (?), EMRG (?), HSP (?), KSS (A), LTXX (A), MOVI (B), NVDA (A), PSUN (?), TGT (B), TLWT (?), URBN (B), WMT (?)
May 13: DPH (06:30 am ET), PBR (?), TIF (B)
May 16: A (A), BGO (A), CNR (?), GG (B), LTD (?), LOW (B), SNDA (A)
May 17: ANF (A), AMAT (4:30 pm ET), BKS (B), BJ (B), BGP (A), DE (B), HPQ (?), HD (B), JCP (?), JWN (A), PNRA (A), SKS (B), SPLS (B)

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.