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Euro Crosses Turning Down
By Jamie Saettele | Published  06/26/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Euro Crosses Turning Down

EUR/JPY - EUR/JPY continues to crawl upward, currently trading just above the 146.00 handle.  The long term wave structure places us near the end of a 6 year uptrend that began on 10/25/2000 at 88.69.  The final wave of this bull market is in the form of an ending diagonal which begins on 6/23/2005 at 130.59.  These types of 5th waves are often followed by drastic declines.  However, there is still room left for the pair to rally a good deal.  An ending diagonal tends to end on a quick spike in the direction of the larger trend.  The 78.6% fibo of 164.58 (using synthetic prices)-88.71 at 148.32 could be a potential end to the long term uptrend.  Trading could very well be of the range variety until a spike towards the 148.32 area.

EUR/CHF - EUR/CHF rallied to 1.5645 on Friday but formed a double top with the 6/2 high at 1.5650 in the process.  This, along with a break of a short term supporting trendline (from 6/14) and bearish divergence with oscillators on the hourly favor shorts.  Support is at the 6/20 low of 1.5574 as well as the 6/14 low of 1.5496.  Any strength contends with the high from Friday at 1.5645.  Bolstering the bearish outlook is a nearly 7 month head and shoulders reversal pattern.  The neckline rests at about 1.5500.  A break below there opens up the door for the 12/9/05 low at 1.5391.

EUR/GBP - EUR/GBP continues to rally and the pair has broken above a resisting trendline that began on 4/6 at .7020.  The pair is nearing a series of daily highs from 1/5 and 6/8 at .6909.  A break higher would target the monthly high from May at .6926.  A resisting line from May 2003 is at about .6950.  Daily oscillators are increasing but not yet overbought - leaving plenty of upside potential in the near term.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.