EUR/JPY - EUR/JPY continues to crawl upward, currently trading just above the 146.00 handle. The long term wave structure places us near the end of a 6 year uptrend that began on 10/25/2000 at 88.69. The final wave of this bull market is in the form of an ending diagonal which begins on 6/23/2005 at 130.59. These types of 5th waves are often followed by drastic declines. However, there is still room left for the pair to rally a good deal. An ending diagonal tends to end on a quick spike in the direction of the larger trend. The 78.6% fibo of 164.58 (using synthetic prices)-88.71 at 148.32 could be a potential end to the long term uptrend. Trading could very well be of the range variety until a spike towards the 148.32 area.
EUR/CHF - EUR/CHF rallied to 1.5645 on Friday but formed a double top with the 6/2 high at 1.5650 in the process. This, along with a break of a short term supporting trendline (from 6/14) and bearish divergence with oscillators on the hourly favor shorts. Support is at the 6/20 low of 1.5574 as well as the 6/14 low of 1.5496. Any strength contends with the high from Friday at 1.5645. Bolstering the bearish outlook is a nearly 7 month head and shoulders reversal pattern. The neckline rests at about 1.5500. A break below there opens up the door for the 12/9/05 low at 1.5391.
EUR/GBP - EUR/GBP continues to rally and the pair has broken above a resisting trendline that began on 4/6 at .7020. The pair is nearing a series of daily highs from 1/5 and 6/8 at .6909. A break higher would target the monthly high from May at .6926. A resisting line from May 2003 is at about .6950. Daily oscillators are increasing but not yet overbought - leaving plenty of upside potential in the near term.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.