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Japanese Yen Crosses Nearing Turning Point
By Jamie Saettele | Published  06/27/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Japanese Yen Crosses Nearing Turning Point

CAD/JPY - CAD/JPY remains at the upper end of a nearly 7 month range.  The rally from the 5/15 low at 98.25 has stalled at resistance from the 2/6 high at 104.10.  Looking in more detail at the hourly chart - the rally from 98.25 has taken on the shape of a head and shoulders on an increasing plane.  In this instance, the trendline is the neckline and a break of it would complete the pattern and be bearish for CAD/JPY.  If this plays out, then support is at the 38.2% fibo of 98.27-104.27 at 101.99.  Both hourly and daily oscillators have turned over and are heading down - supporting a bearish bias.  Immediate support is at the 10 day SMA at 103.28.

CHF/JPY - CHF/JPY is a replica of EUR/JPY and may be near the end of a long term 5 wave bull trend (from 9/7 low at 58.83 - see weekly chart below).  Further, the long term 5th wave begins on 11/10/2003 at 78.89 and takes the shape of an ending diagonal (as does EUR/JPY).  The upper resisting line from the diagonal sits near 94.00 - which would be resistance.  Typically though, this pattern ends with a quick spike through the top of the pattern before the ensuing downtrend.  The hourly chart also shows an upward sloping channel that would appear to be three waves and therefore corrective - which places the path of least resistance down.  Hourly RSI has declined below the midpoint of 50 as well.  Initial support is at the confluence of the 6/23 low / 20 day SMA at 92.84/85.

NZD/JPY - Kiwi/JPY is holding below the resistance line from the downward sloping channel that began on 12/6/05 at 86.53.  After correcting to 72.35 on 6/12, the pair has resumed its downtrend since and daily oscillators are again declining and thus bearish.  The next support level is the 61.8% fibo of 67.76-72.34 at 69.51.  Downside momentum on the hourly is waning and a bounce could test initial resistance at today's high of 70.56.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.