New Zealand Trade Balance (MAY) (22:45 GMT; 18:45 EST)
Consensus: NZ$50.00M
Previous: NZ$18.56M
 
Outlook: An expected rise in New Zealand's trade scales to the tune of NZ$50 million should narrow the more closely watched annual deficit to NZ$6.79 billion for the year ending May 31st.  A longer, year-over-year measure offers a more reliable read given the volatility of the monthly indicator which itself is not adjusted for seasonal effects.  Lifting the trade surplus for the month may prove difficult.  With meat, milk powder and butter exports accounting for nearly a third of the economy, there is little room for err.  Already, short term visitor arrivals, generally used as a broad gauge for tourism, fell 1.0% in May to 135,300 people.  Tourism accounts for another 10% of GDP.  Trade has taken on a particular level of importance lately with the New Zealand economy cooling quickly and the recent report showing the current account balance ballooning to NZ$14.54 billion or 9.3% of total economic output.  With foreign investors pulling their money out of New Zealand investments due to concerns about the economy's stability and goods trade suffering from tepid demand and an insatiable pace of imports; the island nation is expecting little help in controlling its downward spiral in trade.
 
Previous:  The trade balance in New Zealand flirted with the first back-to-back surplus for the read since February and March of 2004.  April's goods balance posted an NZ$18.56 million surplus following the previous month's NZ$75.21 million favorable imbalance despite record prices for some key commodities.  On an annual basis, the 12-month rolling trade deficit was unexpectedly trimmed to NZ$6.9 billion.  Partially responsible for the boost in trade was the fact that the New Zealand dollar has been the world's worst performing major currency this year.  With the declining value of the nation's currency against other world denominations, exports were able to rise 8% on an annual basis.  Machinery, wool and aluminum all showed impressive growth over the year.  However the out performer for the month were dairy products, which soared 55%.  Specifically, a 77% rise in milk powder tacked on an additional NZ$145 million to the export tally.
 
Japanese Retail Trade (MAY) (23:50 GMT; 19:50 EST)
                  (MoM)  (YoY)
Consensus: -0.4%  -0.6%
Previous:     -0.1%  -0.8%
 
Outlook: Japanese retail sales are expected to continue their precipitous fall as consumer confidence surveys indicated a decline in optimism in May. On the large, the Japanese economy has already shown a number of components that could lead to strong consumer demand, with unemployment holding steady at a seven year low of 4.1%. Such extraordinarily low unemployment is also forcing firms to compete for workers, which is consistently pushing wage rates higher, with a 0.3% growth registered for May. On a more sobering note, however, consumer confidence dropped to 49.8, with a score below 50 indicating more pessimistic responses than positive. This drop in confidence is largely due to concern that strong wage growth will be counteracted by an even more rapid increase in the cost of living, as Japan experienced inflation in its consumer basket of 0.7% on the month. In addition, the dismal performance of the Asian equities markets decreased wealth and further dampened consumer optimism. With such issues on the horizon, Japanese consumers are expected to slow their spending, potentially hampering future economic growth.
 
Previous:  Retail sales dropped last month by a revised 0.8% on the year, an even sharper drop than the predicted 0.5%. These disappointing numbers, said Japanese officials, were the result of heavy rainfall that discouraged shoppers, and were mitigated by the release of positive tertiary index data that indicated that spending on services was still going strong. Still, the negative read raised doubts about the likelihood of continued economic growth, as consumer spending constitutes the largest contributor to Japan's GDP. Economists, however, held their optimistic view of consumer demand, assuring the public that wage growth and strong job prospects would help sales rebound in the future. In the meantime, however, it was left to strong corporate spending to lift GDP and sustain Japan's longest expansion post WWII.
 
German GfK Consumer Confidence (JUL) (06:10 GMT; 02:10 EST)
Consensus: 6.8
Previous: 6.8
 
Outlook: German consumer confidence, measured by GfK, takes sentiment from consumers to determine whether they believe it is a good time to purchase large ticket items and how they think the economy will perform in the coming months.  Given an IFO business confidence figure which rose to a 15-year high just today, along with other strong business indicators from the Euro-Zone, consumer confidence is less likely to upset last month's glory.  Business leaders found some of their optimism based on their review of sales and demand levels, which showed some healthy level of growth.  Furthermore, retail sales in April nearly doubled expectations and unemployment came in surprisingly low.  Prices have simultaneously been rising, but that is partially attributable to higher import prices and retailers and wholesalers taking advantage of the Soccer World Cup.  This slight increase in prices should not have been substantial enough to chase away consumers.  If tomorrow's consumer sentiment bests, or even repeats, Junes figure; it would be another indicator that would factor into the ECB's view of current and expected inflationary and growth pressures in the largest economy in the Euro-zone.
 
Previous:   German Consumer Confidence for June rose to 6.8 from 5.3 the month prior.  Evading forecasters' predicted drop, the reading came in at its highest level since 2001.  In addition, the "willingness to buy" component of the survey jumped to 49.8, making a sizable jump from the previous 34.5.  This was good news for the euro in hopes that the consumer is emerging to play its critical part in the region's economic growth.  The reading was projected to decline due to high-energy prices and uncertainty over job security.  The rise in consumer confidence, accompanied by (and likely a product of) lower unemployment has had its effects on Europe's second-largest economy as prices have been rising accordingly.  Should confidence come out well in July and hold for similar effects, the ECB will be that much more likely to pursue tighter monetary policy.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.