EUR/USD - Resistance at the downward sloping trendline has held the past two days but the decline has been corrective and choppy.  The rally from 1.2481 appears far more convincing at this point than the correction from 1.2618.  There is still the potential for weakness as suggested by slowly declining oscillators on the hourly.  Support is suggested by the 61.8% and 78.6% fibos of 1.2481-1.2618 at 1.2533 and 1.2510.  A break above the mentioned resisting trendline could propel the pair to the confluence of the 6/22 high / 38.2% of the 1.2976-1.2481 at 1.2670/77 as well as the 50% fibo at 1.2728.

USD/JPY - USD/JPY continues to hold above the 116.00 figure and trade in a tight range.  The 200 day SMA is still support, now at 116.06 but a long outside doji on the daily yesterday gives scope to a reversal.  If support from the 6/23 and 6/25 lows at 115.76/85 does not hold - then the pair probes the 6/21 low at 114.38.  However, the ability of the pair to hold above the 200 day SMA certainly can not be overlooked and as long as price does remain above - then a test of 118.37 is possible (where 1 would = 5 in the rally from 108.96).

GBP/USD - Cable has broken below a consolidating channel that began on 6/23 at 1.8132.  The upward sloping channel topped out at 1.8415 and the pair has since broken down below 1.8200.  With the break below the short term support line, the intraday pattern looks like a completed head and shoulders continuation pattern.  The pair has found support at the 6/26 low at 1.8161 in early European trading.  Hourly momentum to the downside is slowing but is still down and scope remains for a test of the confluence of the 6/23 low / 50% of 1.7229-1.9025 at 1.8132.  A continued bounce from 1.8161 encounters resistance at today's high of 1.8238.  

USD/CHF - As the inverse of EUR/USD - USD/CHF bounced off of a supporting trendline from the 6/5 low at 1.2014.  Hourly oscillators are back on the rise and Fibonacci extensions of 1.1919-1.2299 place targets for a potential top at 1.2541 (138.2% - very close to Friday's high of 1.2525) and 1.2629 (161.8%).  Still, chart structure on the daily shows that the rise from 1.1919 is corrective when compared to the preceding decline.  The diagonal triangle appears to be coming to an end as evidenced by the proximity of the apex.  A sustained break below the 1.2335/47 (former resistance) would do wonders for bears.

USD/CAD - As volatility has contracted significantly in USD/CAD - an ascending triangle has formed over the last month.  As we are nearing the apex of this ascending triangle, a break to the upside above the ceiling of resistance established by a series of daily highs between 1.1250/72 is imminent.  Additionally, the rallies from 1.0960 to 1.1252 and 1.1036 to 1.1283 appear impulsive and in 5 waves and the corrections of those moves are in 3 waves, reinforcing a bullish stance.  As shown on the hourly chart below - each low is higher; evidence that a low is already in place.  A break above 1.1283 could very well test the 61.8% fibo of 1.1771-1.0927 at 1.1447.  A failure sends the pair back in the range with support at the 6/26 low at 1.1172.

AUD/USD - This morning's break below the 3/6 low at .7392 negates any bullish implications from the hammer at the 61.8% fibo of .7014-.7791 at .7312 on 3/6.  Price now probes the 4/13 low at .7237.  A short term bounce is certainly in play as hourly oscillators are nearing oversold conditions.  The confluence of the 10 day SMA / 6/27 high at .7348/53 is initial resistance.

NZD/USD - As we have focused on the past few days, Kiwi seemed poised to test the .5991 level and it did, subsequently breaking lower  and now exposing the 5/18/04 low at .5909.  The break below the .5991 low on 3/29 confirms that we are in the 5th wave of a downtrend that began on 3/16/05 at .7462.  As such, the measured objective for wave 5 is .5664.  This is where wave 5 (beginning at .6443) would equal wave 1 (.7462-.6683).  This price area is also suggested by a series of daily lows in August 2003 from .5632 to .5650.  Resistance is now at the former support level of .5991 and yesterday's low of .6020.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.