AUD/CAD - AUD/CAD has rallied off of its nearly four and a half year lows made at .8122 on 6/21.  The long wicks on the daily chart combined with positive divergence with oscillators (on daily) at the 78.6% fibo of the April 2002-February 2004 .7500-1.0548 bull wave at .8150 imply continued strength.  There is fact more evidence that this is a long term bottom - the decline from the 5/3/05 high at .9792 to the recent low at .8122 is nearly identical to the previous decline from 2/20/04 at 1.0546 to .8815 on 9/9/04.  Wave equality tends to indicate tops and bottoms.  For these waves to be identical - AUD/CAD would have to decline to .8061.  Still, the difference between the two waves differ by just 3.5% as it stands now.  As mentioned, possibility remains for an additional dip to test .8061 but the favored view is that the pair is nearing an important bottom.

AUD/JPY - The larger trend is down since AUD/JPY has continued to make lower lows and lower highs since December 2006.  However, a 2 week consolidation following a rise from 83.46 to 85.66 may be ending, which would open the door for AUD/JPY to rally and possibly test the longer term downward sloping resistance line (that began on 12/6/05).  The line is at 86.39 today and it falls about 3.6 pips per day.  Additionally, a short term inverse head and shoulders on the hourly along with RSI rising from near oversold levels (on hourly) favor longs in the short term.

AUD/NZD - AUD/NZD is back on the rise after retracing 660 pips of its 1,996 pip rise (1.0428-1.0422) - or 33% (just shy of the 38.2% fibo).  Price action is certainly bullish now that the pair has broken above the 4/11 high at 1.2015.  The bullish break significantly reduces the probability of a head and shoulders reversal pattern unfolding.  The pair is rapidly approaching a resistance zone bound by the 78.6% fibo of 1.2422-1.1759 / 5/18 high between 1.2280/1.2307.  A push through there exposes the 5/10 high at 1.2423.  The mentioned 4/11 high at 1.2015 is now support.  More immediate support comes in from yesterday's high at 1.2157.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.