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British Pound Bears Come Out of Hibernation
By Jamie Saettele | Published  06/29/2006 | Currency | Unrated
British Pound Bears Come Out of Hibernation

GBP/JPY - The Pound continues to fall from the 6/19 high at 213.69 and has picked up downside momentum of late.  The pair has broken below a supporting trendline that began on 4/27 at 203.78, which favors additional weakness to a support zone bound by the 6/9 low / 38.2% fibo of 203.78-213.69 between 209.61/94.  GBP/JPY does currently trade at support from the 6/23 low at 210.91.  With hourly oscillators at / just above oversold levels, a bounce is possible.  Resistance is at a series of daily lows from 211.34 (6/26) to 211.42 (6/22 and 6/27).

GBP/CHF - As mentioned last week on 6/22, "With the 6/20 high being rejected at 2.2878, the range theme is continuing as the pair heads to the lower portion of the range near the 6/5 low at 2.2576."  The daily chart below shows the extent to which this pair has ranged for the past year.  As such probability would favor a test of support from the 6/5 low (and a series of daily lows) at 2.2576.  A break lower exposes the 4/5 low (and other daily lows) at 2.449.  Still, only a break below the 1/9 low at 2.2452 would suggest that the year long range is over.  Conversely, if support holds, then scope remains for more range trading with initial resistance at the 6/12 high at 2.2769.  

GBP/AUD - Similar to GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD has slowly made its way below a 2 month supporting trendline.  A break below the 6/23 low at 2.4802 would reinforce a bearish bias.  Daily oscillators are just now turning down and crossing midpoints, suggesting that the pair could be entering the early stages of a downward move.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.