Maybe the lack of activity in the market since the 15th had nothing to do with me being on vacation and more to do with Thursday's FOMC announcement, but in either case it's been a pretty choppy ride lately. Volume has been a lot lighter than in recent trading, showing a greater degree of overlap in prices from day to day. With little in terms of economic data and earnings to provide momentum, there have been a lot fewer clear-cut setups and opportunities for day and swingtraders. Hence, it's been very important to practice patience and just watch and wait for the good ones that are still out there. For instance, NKE on Wednesday provided the perfect daily chart for a trend day on the downside, yielding a strong sell pattern into the early afternoon.

Despite gapping up into Wednesday's open, the market overall was weak throughout the morning. The 15 minute 20 simple moving average served as resistance and by 10:30 ET the indices were falling into Tuesday's lows. A brief pause was followed by continued selling shortly after 11:00 ET before the indices hit support at 11:30. For the most part the selling was more gradual than the prior day and this helped the indices reverse over noon. The upside pace began to pick up within 15 minute of hitting the lows, taking the market into 5 minute 20 sma resistance at 12:00 ET and then well past it and back to resistance from the morning highs and prior afternoon congestion.

The mid-day rally was followed by a trading range along the 15 minute 20 sma resistance. The indices by this time were now starting to show rounded lows on the larger time frames and a third test of the highs of the range on the 5 minute charts led to a breakout from the 14:00 ET reversal period. The pace was stronger on this rally than the one beginning just before lunch and it was able to push past equal move resistance as compared to that prior upswing.

The indices slowed only as the Nasdaq came into 5 minute 200 sma resistance intraday and the S&P 500 ran into 15 minute 200 sma resistance. All three came back into the midst of the range on the daily charts beginning on June 15th. The strength of the late day rally made a sharp correction off highs difficult. Instead the indices fell into another range into the close, ending near the highs of the day. The S&P 500 rose 6.8 points on the day while the Dow Jones Ind. Ave. gained 48.82 points. The Nasdaq saw the highest percentage gain despite the weaker start on the day, gaining 11.59 points.

Thursday is likely to be a slow session throughout most of the day. The Fed is due out at 2:15 ET and the consensus favors yet another quarter-point rate hike. The main focus will be on accompanying statements suggestive of whether or not we continue to see more. On a typical Fed day the market will begin to slow after the first hour or so of the day. Volume drops off dramatically over noon and into the early afternoon. Trading becomes much more risky at this as liquidity dries up.

The reaction to the Fed tends to come in three waves. There is the initial reaction, followed by a secondary and reverse reaction (this can be stronger than the first move), and then another reversal back to the original direction. This type of action can take place first on a 1 minute chart and then can be seen repeated on a 5 minute chart. Use a lot of caution trading directly after the Fed and keep your data feeds to a minimum to avoid delays and the potential to freeze up your computer. The rapid influx in data can make it easy to miss pivotal price changes when making transactions until around 2:30 ET or so.
 
Economic Reports and Events
June 29: Chain Deflator-Final for Q1 (8:30 am), GDP-Final for Q1 (8:30 am), Initial Claims for 6/24 (8:30 am), Help-Wanted Index for May (10:00 am), FOMC Policy Statement (2:15 pm)
June 30: Personal Income and Personal Spending for May (8:30 am), Michigan Sentiment-Rev. for June (9:50 am), Chicago PMI for June (10:00 am)
July 3: Construction Spending for May (10:00 am), ISM Index for June (10:00 am)
July 5: Auto and Truck Sales for June (12:00 am), Factory Orders for May (10:00 am), Crude Inventories 6/30 (10:30 am)
July 6: Initial Claims 7/01 (8:30 am), ISM Services for June (10:00 am)
July 7: Average Workweek, Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for June (8:30 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
June 29: ACN (?), AM (B), ATYT (?), CA (A), STZ (A), GY (B), GIS (B), MON (B), MSM (?), PALM (A), RIMM (A), WOR (B)
June 30: -
July 03: -
July 04: -
July 05: -
July 06: LI (A), TIBX (A)
July 07: -
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.