EUR/USD â�,�“ The EUR/USD scenario played out just as we expected with the zone of support that we have focused on the past two days between â�,��"the 61.8% and 78.6% fibos of 1.2481-1.2618 between 1.2533 and 1.2510.â�,�  We mentioned that â�,��"a break above the mentioned resisting trendline could propel the pair to the confluence of the 6/22 high / 38.2% of the 1.2976-1.2481 at 1.2670/77 as well as the 50% fibo at 1.2728.â�,�  Both of those objectives were met with the high in early European trading this morning at 1.2730.  Where do we go from here?  This consolidation / correction from 1.2730 is likely the fourth wave of a 5 wave bull sequence on the hourly and support is at 6/22 high of 1.2677 as well as the 38.2% fibo of 1.2519-1.2730 at 1.2650.  A dip to one of these levels opens up the door for a 5th wave up to the 61.8% fibo of 1.2976-1.2481 at 1.2787 or the 6/8 high at 1.2807.

USD/JPY â�,�“ The dollar also lost a ton of ground to the JPY as the pair has fallen two big figures to 114.50.  This should not be a surprise to our readers as we remarked yesterday that â�,��"a long outside doji on the daily two days ago gives scope to a reversal.â�,�  The 6/21 low at 114.38 is still immediate support.  USD/JPY looks like it may have completed 5 waves down from 116.60 and thus a bounce to the 38.2% fibo of 116.60-114.49 at 115.29 is certainly a possibility.  Throw in bullish divergence with hourly RSI and the likelihood of a bounce above the 115.00 figure seems reasonable.  Still, a break below 114.49 (the low) exposes 114.38 and the 50% fibo of 111.32-116.67 at 114.00.     

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable is a bit choppier than the other majors.  Still, the breaking of a minor trendline does lend a bullish bias over the medium term.  In the very short term, hourly RSI (falling below overbought) suggests that a test of yesterdayâ�,��"�s high at 1.8294 is possible.  Fibo resistance from the double top at 1.8879 to yesterdayâ�,��"�s 1.8090 low comes in at 1.8390 (38.2%).  The 50% fibo of 1.7227-1.9025 and the fact that the distance from 1.8879 is almost exactly 161.8% of the distance from 1.9025-1.8529 both favor the argument that an important low is in place at 1.8090.

USD/CHF â�,�“ As the inverse of EUR/USD - USD/CHF broke below its trendline.  We have focused in recent days that â�,��"chart structure on the daily shows that the rise from 1.1919 is corrective when compared to the preceding decline.  The diagonal triangle appears to be coming to an end as evidenced by the proximity of the apex.  A sustained break below the 1.2335/47 (former resistance) would do wonders for bears.â�,�  The pair has broken below.  The 161.8% extension of 1.2529-1.2397 from 1.2499 comes in at 1.2293 (1.2499 â�,�“ (1.618 * (1.2529-1.2397))) (38.2% of 1.1919-1.2525 is also 1.2294).  Additional weakness beyond the fibo extension exposes a previous short term triple bottom from 6/14, 6/15 and 6/16 at 1.2262/66.  Resistance is at yesterdayâ�,��"�s low of 1.2356 as well as the 38.2% fibo of 1.2497-1.2304 at 1.2378.

USD/CAD â�,�“ The ascending triangle that we have focused on is still in play as price has been supported at the lower upward sloping trendline.  Also at that level is the 161.8% extension of 1.1283-1.1172 from1.1262 (1.1262 â�,�“ (1.618 * (1.1283-1.1172))).  However, the move down from 1.1262 is in 5 waves and if the pair breaks below the trendline (on chart below), then that break must be respected.  Support would be at the 6/21 low of 1.1036.  Bullish divergence on the hourly with oscillators suggest a continued bounce.  Resistance is at the 38.2% fibo of 1.1262-1.1077 at 1.1147.

AUD/USD â�,�“ AUD/USD has blasted by both the .7300 and .7400 figures.  Daily oscillators are bullish after the 150 pip rise that has occurred over the past day and a half.  The 6/16 high at .7443 is just above current price and is immediate resistance.  A break above there exposes a fibo confluence of the 50% fibo of .7652-.7270 / 38.2% fibo of .7791-.7270 at .7460/67.  Short term (hourly) oscillators are extremely overbought but such is the case with such an impulsive move that follows contracted volatility.  Be careful about reading into the overbought signals until bearish divergence is present.  Support would be at the 6/22 high of .7418 as well as yesterdayâ�,��"�s high at .7403.

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwi broke back above the .6000 figure after bottoming at .5927.  The .5927 low was mere pips below the 161.8% extension of .6443-.6140 from .6428 at .5939.  The rally has stalled at the 38.2% fibo of .6428-.5927 at .6118.  It is possible that the rise from .5927 is a 4th wave correction of a 3rd wave down from .6428.  In this scenario, Kiwi would eventually challenge the .5927 low and work lower.  Continued strength exposes the 50% and 61.8% fibos of the mentioned bear wave from .6428 to .5927 at .6177 and .6236.  Oscillators on the daily are rising but are still below midpoints and thus mixed.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.