EUR/USD - The pair has reached and passed measured objectives at 1.2730 and 1.2787 and the pair now probes the 78.6% fibo of 1.2976-1.2481 at 1.2870.  If 1.2760 was the bottom of wave 4, then the pair could very well test 1.2897, which is where wave 5 would equal wave 1 (1.2618-1.2481).  The heavily traded pair does trade right at the upper Bollinger band on the daily and support is at the 7/3 low of 1.2760 as well as former intraday resistance on 6/30 at 1.2730.

USD/JPY - USD/JPY continues to digest losses to 114.10.  The rally off of 114.10 was capped just below the psychological 115.00 figure at 114.94.  A continued correction of the move down encounters 114.94 as well as the 6/30 high at 115.23.  Only a break below the 114.10 low suggests that the corrective period is over and then USD/JPY could test the 38.2% fibo of 108.96-116.67 at 113.76.  Of note as well is the pair breaking below the 40 week SMA.  This favors a longer term bearish outlook.

GBP/USD - Cable's rally is far less appealing technically than that of EUR/USD.  For one, the impulsive rally is from the low at 1.8090.  In the case of EUR/USD, there was a rally from 1.2481 followed by a correction, followed by the impulsive rally.  Thus, a sound base was constructed which suggests that more vested interest.  Also, EUR/USD has retraced more than 61.8% of its recent move down from 1.2976 and GBP/USD has retraced just a little more than 38.2%.  As such, the Cable rally is likely more vulnerable.  In the shorter term though, the rally from 1.8090 is more convincing than the decline from 1.8494 to 1.8386.  A break above the 1.8494 high exposes the 6/16 high / 50% fibo of 1.9025-1.8090 confluence at 1.8552/56.

USD/CHF - USD/CHF has found support at the 50% fibo of 1.1919-1.2525 at 1.2223.  On the hourly, a short term triple bottom is present with the last 3 day's lows at 1.2226, 1.2218, and 1.2225.  With the pair at 1.2240, risk is certainly limited to the downside in the short term.  The high from 7/3 at 1.2275 is initial resistance.  If 1.2275 hold, then USD/CHF could very well test 1.2145.  This is where the length of wave 1 would equal the length of wave 5 and is also very close to the 61.8% fibo of 1.1919-1.2525 at 1.2149.

USD/CAD - The supporting trendline that began on 5/31 at 1.0927 continues to hold.  The picture would be bearish on a sustained break below the trendline.  Until that happens, risk is limited to the downside and USD/CAD continues to trade in an ascending triangle.  USD/CAD does appear headed higher after bouncing off of the trendline late on 7/3.  Resistance is at the 7/3 high / 61.8% fibo of 1.1262-1.1077 confluence at 1.1186/91.  A break above that level would expose the 78.6% fibo of 1.1262-1.1077 at 1.1222.  The mentioned trendline is at around 1.1100 and a break lower targets the 6/30 low at 1.1077.

AUD/USD - AUD/USD trades at the 200 day SMA at .7434.  Last week's candle is rare in that it took out the prior week's low, high, and closed above the prior week's high.  When combined with the opposite instance (closing below previous low), this has happened just 49 times since 1976 - 24 times to the long side and 25 times to the long side.  The candles is circled in the chart below along with the previous instance in January.  The average favorable move (when taken from the close of the engulfing candle) is 465 pips and the average adverse move is 303 pips.  Continued strength could test the 6/9 high at .7503.  Initial support is at yesterday's low of .7411.

NZD/USD - Kiwi's rally was rejected by the 38.2% fibo of .6428-.5927 at .6118.  A push past there would encounter resistance at the 5/22 low of .6142.  This level must hold for any bearish bias to remain.  Kiwi currently trades at the 10 day SMA at .6071.  Initial support is at the 7/3 low of .6050.  Daily oscillators are sloping up with RSI and CCI close to midpoints of 50 and 0.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.