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Australian Dollar Crosses Search for Direction
By Jamie Saettele | Published  07/5/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Australian Dollar Crosses Search for Direction

AUD/CAD - AUD/CAD has made a massive triple bottom with daily lows from 6/13 (.8142) , 6/21 (.8122) , and 6/29 (.8119).  The triple bottom along with bullish divergence on the daily points to a turn in this pair.  Favoring the bullish stance is the 78.6% fibo of the .7502-1.0546 April 2001 to February 2004 bull wave at .8156.  CCI on the daily has crossed above 0 and MACD slope is positive.  The hourly chart shows that a correction of the rally from .8119-.8310 has found support at the 38.2% fibo of that rally at .8237.  Additional weakness probes the 50% and 61.8% fibos at .8214 and .8192.

AUD/JPY - AUD/JPY continues to hold above a short term supporting trendline that starts on 6/5 at 83.46.  However, the hourly chart suggests that the rally from the 6/5 low at 83.46 may be nearing an end as the choppy rise has resulted in slight bearish divergence at the 50% fibo of 87.76-83.47 at 85.61.  A push higher exposes the confluence of the 61.8% fibo / trendline from 12/6 high at 91.32 at 86.11.  If today's 85.70 high holds as resistance, then Aussie Yen may head lower towards the 7/3 low of 84.77.

AUD/NZD - AUD/NZD has digested gains the past week and currently trades in a consolidating triangle.  With the previous trend up, a break to the upside could challenge the 5/10 high at 1.2423.  Initial resistance is at the 6/28 high of 1.2290.  It is possible that the decline from 1.2423 to 1.1765 is the first of 3 corrective waves with the rally to 1.2290 as the second corrective wave.  The argument for a top at 1.2290 is that the rally to 1.2290 reversed course at the 78.6% fibo of 1.2423-1.1764.  If this is correct, then the path is down for a third corrective wave to at least 1.1633 (where wave 1 would equal wave 3).

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.