GBP/JPY - GBP/JPY continues to range at the upper end of its yearly range.  Daily oscillators are mixed and are indicative of the recent contraction in volatility as they fluctuate around their midpoints.  Price is supported by the confluence of the 10 and 20 day SMA's just below at 211.67/72 and resisted by the double top on the daily from highs on 12/13/05 and 6/19 at 213.00/69.  The hourly chart shows a choppy head and shoulders reversal pattern along with weakening oscillators, which echoes a cautious bearish stance.  A break below the trendline on the daily (see chart below) would support bears.

GBP/CHF - We mentioned last week that "probability would favor a test of support from the 6/5 low (and a series of daily lows) at 2.2576".  Sellers tested it but couldn't break the level as GBP/CHF made a low on 7/3 at 2.2519 but has since rebounded to 2.2600.  We are now at the bottom of year long range so a bounce is expected.  Resistance is at fibo retracements of the 2.2878-2.2519 decline at 2.2656, 2.2698, and 2.2741.  A break below the 2.2519 low exposes the 44/5 low at 2.2449.

GBP/AUD - GBP/AUD has declined within a small symmetrical triangle on the daily.  The decline from 2.5113 is the 4th wave within the triangle and triangles usually have 5 waves.  Thus, a bit more weakness to the lower end of the triangle near 2.4674 followed by a 5th wave bounce to complete the formation is probable.  This scenario fits with the fact that hourly RSI is nearing oversold territory as well as some more weakness could attract buyers to take the pair to the upper end of the pattern.  The triangle begins on 5/26 (30 days ago) at 2.4457.  Fibonacci time series analysis suggests that a break of the triangle could occur on the 34th day (fibo number) - which would be on 7/10 (Monday).

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.