Energies
Strength in crude persisted this week, despite a Friday profit taking.  North Korea let the missiles fly, but then the market realized we are no where near a war over there.  The US put Iran on a tight time leash to make something out of the incentive package offered to halt uranium enrichment.  Iran is no closer to caring about an incentive plan than we are to going to war with North Korea.  Increased tensions and the overhanging hurricane fears means buy on dips in crude and look for $78 in short order. 

Financials
A benign employment report means an even greater likelihood that we are at the end of the rate hikes, but I think it is starting to set in that even if the fed stops they can start back up any time them want.  Bonds surged and held critical support above 105, making this bear pause and look for a sell opportunity around 109 on the 30 year.  The dollar weakness ends the week right on critical potential trend line support.  If we break and close below 8420 this market may very well test the 8050 double bottom.  However, the gut says this is a great buying opportunity and a shot at selling the euro near its highs.  The Canadian is frozen in a consolidation pattern, but a break and close below 89 is deadly bearish for this market.

Grains
Grains offered choppy action this holiday week and is getting setup for the crop production report and WASDE reports on Wednesday.  Continue to look for a turn in the 6-10 forecasts for these markets to mount a serious rally attempt.  Rice is still a strong buy.  Also, you can collect some decent premium in a short strangle play in corn of all places (August OTM about 10 cents out). 

Meats
Meats started their turn this week and are setup to see some serious downside next week before everyone gets worried about the next cattle on feed.  When such a bullish COF report comes out and the market canââ,¬â"¢t sustain its highs, then one has to wonder what the next report needs to show to get the shorts bailing out.  I continue to recommend buying August cattle puts. 

Metals
Strength in metals came as the dollar retraced, but if critical support holds in the dollar then gold and silver are heading back through their lows.  Copper is right up near its highs and deserving of a put play if you can tap into that miserable option market.

Softs
OJ plummeted on the close today as sell stops were triggered on a break below 167.50 sent the market into a skewed volume sell mode in the closing five minutes of trading.  I suspect we gap open high on Monday, but if we donââ,¬â"¢t then you might see some serious long liquidation.  Hurricanes and fundamentals say buy on dips like this one.  Coffee looked to be building momentum on a rally attempt, but todayââ,¬â"¢s gap higher and strong sell mode throughout the day squashed any momentum that was once there.  Moreover, it established even more significance to 105 resistance and makes that the mark to break to resume the uptrend.  Cocoa continues to rally as Ivory Coast disarmament talks raise eyebrows and expose that sensitive region to all kinds of political dangers.  Cotton prices tumbled today and the gut says we are about to fall apart here.  Look at a monthly chart on this market and tell me that isnââ,¬â"¢t one of the prettiest consolidation patterns you will ever see.  Sugar continues to gap move its way to increased volatility, and has solid gap support at 16.72, keeping me bullish until it breaks and closes below that.  Lumber is still a sell, despite losing some momentum. 

James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.