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Japanese Yen Digests Gains
By Jamie Saettele | Published  07/11/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Japanese Yen Digests Gains

CAD/JPY- CAD/JPY has plummeted from the upper end of a 7 month range, breaking below support from daily lows at 102.08 and currently testing the 50% fibo of 98.24-104.40 at 101.32.  The decline from 104.17 (7/5 high) is currently correcting the rapid decline to yesterday's low at 101.06.  To complete a 5 wave decline, the pair needs to break below the 101.06 low - even for just a moment.  Support is strong though - with the 200 day SMA at 101.09, and the 6/5 and 6/6 lows at 101.11.  A break lower could test the 61.8% fibo of 98.24-104.40 at 100.60 before a larger correction of strength takes place.  Another target would be 100.98 - which is where the initial wave 1 decline from 104.17-103.31 would equal wave 5 (beginning at 101.83).

CHF/JPY - CHF/JPY broke an important supporting trendline on the daily (from 2/27 low at 87.63) and has since found support at the confluence of the 50 day SMA / lower Bollinger band (daily) at 92.45.  The pair is nearing resistance at the 38.2% fibo of 94.04-92.45 at 93.06.  A continued correction higher would probe the 50% fibo at 93.24.  Strength to one of these levels is likely in order to complete a 3 wave correction before price can head lower and test the 92.45 low.

NZD/JPY - NZD/JPY continues to head higher after bottoming on 6/28 at 68.90.  The pair is rapidly approaching resistance from the confluence of the 7/5 high / 38.2% fibo of 72.34-68.89 at 70.20/22.  A break higher exposes a resisting trendline / 50% fibo at 70.62.  the trendline must hold as resistance in order to keep the immediate bearish bias in tact.  A break above the tredline could see the pair test the 78.6% fibo at 71.60 (also 6/20 and6/22 highs).  With hourly oscillators oversold, a short term dip is certainly possible.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.