Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL) (00:30 GMT, 20:30 EST)
Consensus:            n/a
Previous:               -0.5%

Outlook: Australian Consumer Confidence is expected to remain low in July with oil spiking to a new high, high commodity prices being passed on to the consumer, and speculation of another interest rate hike in the works.  However, a slight bounce could be expected from June's six-year low given support of improving employment trends and a mild improvement in the housing market as buyers take advantage of what could be the closing months of sub-6.00% overnight lending rates.  Even this positive tone is tainted however, as job vacancies held high in May at 7.3% while retail sales declined -0.3% during the same month.

Previous:  Westpac's Consumer Confidence read dropped sharply in June, sending it to the lowest level since September of 2000.  Rising oil prices combined with increasing interest rates, a weaker Aussie, and a relatively sluggish economy were broadly attributed to the waning optimism in shoppers' current conditions.  A geographic/economic disparity, with the southeast coast performing considerably worse than other parts of the continent, has also weighed on consumers.  A net of 4.6% of respondents felt their financial situation was worse when compared to the same period a year ago.
 
UK Claimant Count Rate (JUN) (08:30 GMT, 04:30 EST)
Consensus:          3.0%
Previous:              3.0%

Outlook:  The UK Claimant Count Rate is expected to once again measure 3.0% of the available labor pool in June as actual jobless claims are predicted to rise by another 5,000.  This percentage also reflects the expectations for the ILO jobless rate to hover near 5.3%, its highest level since October of 2000.  Growing unemployment stemming from last years economic slowdown has subsequently stifled wage growth, which it has offset some negative inflationary trends and put the Bank of England on hold for what could be the rest of the year.  Although the economy slowed in the second quarter on lower industrial output, forecasts still predict improved growth and a recovery of the sluggish job market.

Previous:  The Claimant Count Rate remained at the highest level since October of 2003.  The claimant count has remained at 3.0% since March of this year, off of the all time low of 2.60% sustained from November 2004 - March 2005.  Unemployment has been an growing problem since last years slowdown in GDP to 1.8%, a fourteen year low.  Forecasts predict a turnaround in GDP to 2.6%, sparked in large part by a recovery on the European continent.  Unemployment increased to 5.3% from 5.2%.

US Trade Balance (MAY) (12:30 GMT, 08:30 EST)
Consensus:           -$64.8B
Previous:               -$63.4B

Outlook:  Analysts are predicting the trade deficit has grown to -$65 billion over May on increased local demand for foreign goods and stubbornly high energy prices.  EUR/USD improved from 1.1921 at the beginning of March to 1.2811 at the end of May, but the drastic change in currency has failed to ease the dollar deficit substantially.  A potential shrinking of the deficit with Canada - the US's largest trading partner - was most likely offset by increases from other foreign countries like China.  May's forecast is the same as the consensus prior to April's report, and if many of the same elements were present at the time.  If the shortfall in goods trade is better than expected, the burden on the dollar will be somewhat lifted as net foreign investment levels will not have to rebound that much further to fund the nation's ailing trade profile.

Previous:  The trade balance took another negative turn in April, hitting a $63.4 billion shortfall from $61.9 billion the month prior.  This was smaller than the forecast of $65.00 billion unfavorable balance despite dollar strength against the euro and record prices for imported crude prices.  This figure was prominently well short of the psychologically crucial $70 billion mark could be showing signs that the slowing gait of US economic expansion will temper American's demand for foreign goods and further ease the ailing trade scenario now weighing on the dollar.
 
Canadian International Merchandise Trade (MAY) (12:30 GMT, 08:30 EST)
Consensus:          C$4.6
Previous:              C$4.1

Outlook:  May's International Merchandise Trade is expected to end a three-month trend of contractions by widening to C$4.5 billion from April's C$4.1 billion surplus.  While little support was found from the Canadian dollar still remains at the end of a downtrend that began in early 2002, that has put the currency at 28-year highs against its largest trade partner, and has in turn exerted pressure on the export sector.  The C$0.4 billion gain will be a welcome relief to loonie bulls who have seen a number of economic indicators reporting a worsening environment for manufacturers and other exports.  One promising turn of events for the trade figure going forward is the BoC's decision to put a halt to rate hikes.  While it will not show its effects until July, a potential easing of the currency in response to policy shift could make Canadian goods more competitive in the global market place.

Previous:  Continued strength in the Canadian dollar against the US dollar contributed to the third straight decline in the international merchandise trade balance.  Manufacturing has been hit by the drop in USD/CAD and provided a 71,000 contraction in the workforce as employers are forced to cut costs anywhere they can.  Canadian exports were down 2.3% for the month, perhaps showing that they are loosing ground to more competitive products from other countries with cheaper currencies.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.