AUD/CAD - AUD/CAD has taken out multiple resistance levels as the reversal opportunity has played out perfectly so far. Reinforcing the longer term bullish bias is the pair crossing above the 200 day SMA today - a daily close above the SMA would bolster the bullish outlook. Resistance from the 5/18 high at .8605 is not far above current price and hourly oscillators suggest that some consolidation of recent strength is in order. Bearish divergence with RSI and RSI crossing below 70 indicate that the initial move from the .8119 low on 6/29 is nearing an end. Initial support is at today's low at .8502 with additional support at the 7/10 high at .8425.
AUD/JPY - AUD/JPY has broken above the neckline from a 7 month inverse head and shoulders continuation pattern. Like AUD/CAD, the pair has also pushed above the 200 day SMA today. Both of these are longer term bullish developments and price now appears headed to the confluence of the 4/19 high / 61.8% fibo of 91.31-82.05 at 87.76. Price currently trades at potential resistance from the 50% fibo at 86.68 as well as the 78.6% fibo of 87.74-86.81 at 86.81. The move up is a bit overextended in the short term with RSI well above 70 on the hourly but a lack of divergence among price and indicator suggest that upside momentum is still present. In the event of a setback, the 7/7 high at 86.13 and the 5/30 high at 85.78 are support.
AUD/NZD - AUD/NZD continues to digest recent gains. It is possible that the decline from 1.2423 to 1.1765 is the first of 3 corrective waves with the rally to 1.2358 as the second corrective wave. If this is correct, then the path is down for a third corrective wave to at least 1.1700 (where wave a would equal wave c). This also happens to be very close to the 4/19 (1.1689) and 4/26 (1.1693) lows. Favoring the bearish bias is the emergence of a head and shoulders reversal on the hourly. The neckline has been broken but like so many h&s patterns, the pair is re-testing the neckline, but now as resistance. Also, a breakout is more probable with volatility currently at low levels.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.