EUR/USD - The decline is looking rather tired on the hourly chart as evidenced by bullish divergence among oscillators and price.  Still, the possibility does remain that EUR/USD slips a bit lower to test the 61.8% fibo of 1.2481-1.2859 at 1.2625.  Additional support would be at the 78.6% fibo at 1.2562.  If the reversal scenario plays out, then resistance is at a resisting trendline near 1.2700 with a break higher exposing yesterday's high at 1.2730.  Also, this next leg up would be a 3rd wave rally - which is often fast and furious.  An impulsive move higher could stall at the confluence of the 61.8% fibo of 1.2859-1.2647 / 7/12 high at 1.2777/79.

USD/JPY - From yesterday - "Right at the 200 day SMA is a potential resisting trendline on the daily.  A rejection there could very well see a sharp decline back to the confluence of the 7/10 low / 38.2% fibo of 108.96-116.67 at 113.42/72."  This is exactly what we have seen (the first half at least) as the last 8 or so hours have been a wild ride for Yen traders.  The spike highs on the hourly at 116.12 and 116.16 occurred near the 78.6% fibo of 116.67-113.42 at 115.97.  Also evident on the hourly is bearish divergence with oscillators at the highs above 116.00.  Maybe more convincing though is the fact that the spike to 116.16 was turned back right at the confluence of the 200 day SMA / trendline from 4/13.  If 116.16 holds as resistance, then the first significant support zone is at the area between yesterday's low and the 38.2% fibo of 113.42-116.16 at 114.97-115.11.

GBP/USD - Following a recent trend, Cable is little changed as consolidation continues within a triangle.  The upper end of the triangle at 1.8440 has held as resistance (tonight's high at 1.8446).  With the most recent impulsive move up from 1.8090 - we would favor a break higher rather than lower to eventually challenge the confluence of the 7/7 high / 50% fibo of 1.9024-1.8090 at 1.8539/57.  The larger inverse head and shoulders pattern is bullish as well.  Like the other majors, it is possible that the recent dip to 1.8354 was the beginning of a turn higher.  If 1.8354 is broken to the downside, then there is potential support from the 78.6% fibo of 1.8308-1.8466 at 1.8342.     

USD/CHF - USD/CHF continues to hold above a short term supporting trendline (near 1.2300).  The recent test of the upside failed at the 50% fibo of 1.2500-1.2189 at 1.2344 and price is heading back to the trendline near 1.2300.  A break below the mentioned trendline exposes the 7/12 low at 1.2250 as well as the confluence of the 161.8% fibo extension of 1.2372-1.2273 from 1.2344 / 7/7 low at 1.2183/90.  The 20 day SMA is immediate resistance, which price has remained trapped below since 6/30.

USD/CAD - USD/CAD has retraced back to the former breakout point of 1.1283 but currently trades in a tight range just above the 1.1300 figure.  The wave structure shows a 5 wave bull sequence from 1.1039 to 1.1399 but the ensuing correction is not as clear.  This in itself suggests that there is more to the downside before the next leg up.  What we have then is the first (a wave) of 3 (a-b-c) corrective waves from 1.1399 to 1.1284 and the second (b wave) from 1.1284 to 1.1325.  The rally from 1.1284 has retraced 38.2% of the decline from 1.1399.  Additional gains would target the 50% fibo at 1.1341 with the 3rd wave of the correction eventually testing fibo levels of 1.1039-1.1399 at 1.1261 (38.2%) or 1.1219 (50%).

AUD/USD - Aussie broke below the supporting trendline from the .7270 low but found support at the 10 day SMA at .7483.  The break of the trendline does suggest that the trend is down and that this recent bounce is a correction.  As such, potential resistance is at the 61.8% fibo of .7565-.7481 at .7533 and the 78.6% fibo at .7547.  Hourly oscillators are again neutral after bouncing from near oversold levels earlier today.

NZD/USD - Kiwi has held its own but appears to be on the brink of tumbling.  The pair has been able to push past yesterday's high at .6199 but the rise has been uninspiring.  The hourly chart shows bearish divergence with the last 5 highs that the pair has made.  Momentum is obviously slowing and volatility is contracting - a characteristic sometimes seen before turning points.  There is still potential for a spike to the confluence of the 61.8% fibo of .6431-.5927 / 6/16 high at .6237/46.  Kiwi also currently tests a resisting trendline that began in December 2005 (see chart below).  Additional evidence of a near term top is the structure of the advance from .5927.  The rally is currently in a 3rd corrective wave and a possible end would be where the 3rd wave equals the price length of the 1st wave.  The first wave is from .5927 to .6120 and the 3rd wave begins at .6025.  The math then works out to .6025 + (.6120-.5927) = .6218.  Today's high is at .6211 - which is very close to our measured objective.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.