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Euro Commodity Crosses Take a Beating
By Jamie Saettele | Published  07/14/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Euro Commodity Crosses Take a Beating

EUR/AUD - EURAUD has declined 7 of the last 8 days but the pair does seem to have found support yesterday at the confluence of the 5/26, 5/29, and 5/30 lows at .6781.  The pair has bounced from yesterday's 1.6793 low at the lower Bollinger band on the daily.  There is also a supporting trendline protecting bulls at the current price but a break lower could signal a breakout to the 50% fibo of 1.5960-1.7353 at 1.6658.  More support is from the 20 week SMA at 1.6884.  As we see, there is a lot of support at current levels.  So while the move down is rather convincing, wait for a bounce higher if you are to get bearish on EUR/AUD.  The 7/12 high at 1.6981 is resistance.       

EUR/CAD - EUR/CAD has also moved south after piercing the previous high from 5/24 at 1.4455.  The pair thus continues in its upward sloping channel that began back in January.  Oscillators on the daily have turned over from overbought territory and are now bearish but with 5 waves up from 1.3795 (6/13 low), this move down is considered a correction.  Support is just below at the 7/3 high at 1.4303.   Fibo support from the 1.3795-1.4472 bull wave comes in at 1.4214 (38.2%).  Hourly oscillators are just above oversold territory and show slight bullish divergence.

EUR/NZD - The euro is down for the 6th straight day against the Kiwi.  The decline from the 2.1187 high on 7/7 is likely the beginning of a corrective pattern of the 5 wave uptrend from 1.6326 to 2.1187.  We will know much more regarding future implications once we get a turn higher and begin the second wave of the correction.  That turn could come soon as price is very close to the 61.8% fibo of 1.9897-2.1187 at 2.0392 (today's low is at 2.0402).  This combined with bullish RSI divergence on the hourly favors a turn higher in the near term.  Resistance is connoted by the spike low on 6/30 at 2.0723.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.