Energies
After a false hope rally the market continue to crash south as inventory data is finally nailing home what has been evident for some time which is an over abundance of inventory heading into the summer driving season.  Using history as a guide the inventory levels are growing so rapidly that there has rarely been this amount of growth right before the summer driving season, where typically we see growing stocks anyway.  The market is heading south, with some bumps in the road, and my $40 target still stands.  Expect some support around the mid-$46 area.  Nat gas held $6.42 and I continue to recommend a swing trade long with a tight stop below that mark.

Financials
Stock market volatility is continuing to heat up, and this week offered us more of the same choppy trade nowhere.  There is a good technical and fundamental argument for the bear turn ahead and I believe that Thursday's highs should hold and any short entry point between 1160-1165 would be a gift.  Bonds are truly unbelievable and after breaking 115-17 the next price resistance is 116-21 and then almost the skies the limit.  There is so much foreign buying holding this market up that I feel we are in what I can only describe as a global squeeze on the market and when it gives up that stranglehold watch out to the downside - it will be a freefall!  Continue to stockpile puts and be patient, as the market may be proving us bears wrong in the short term but the profit potential on the other side of this rainbow is one heck of a pot of gold.  The dollar broke to new highs as expected and is truly in a bull breakout.  I remain a bear euro, Canadian and yen player, and you better get on this bandwagon quick before it is too late.

Grains
Grains took a big hit on the crop news on Thursday with the forecast for this year's crop looking especially ugly for corn and wheat.  I would normally bow down to a report that bad and say bail on the value buying I have been recommending for months, but the gut says next week is the key.  It just seems that bear fundamentals this early in the season can be easily erased, and if they want to break this market even further then I hope you have deep pockets because it is worth every penny to dollar average in here.  Next week is critical for the market to establish a new base of value support and to leave that price point in the dust by week's end to establish a true turning point and absolute bottom.

Meats
Cattle resisted out below 87.50 but ended the week on the brink of a bull breakout.  It is absolutely critical that Monday's closing price is below 87 for the bear play to have a chance in the near term.  I highly recommend selling futures on the open on Monday if is below 87.50 and putting a stop at 87.80 - that is one heck of a cheap swing trade that could make some serious ROI if my gut is on the ball here.  Hogs and bellies are still an intermediate term bear play.  Feeders are just about to implode.

Metals
Gold fell apart, with increased downside pressure coming on the heels of a US dollar bull breakout.  Silver followed and the metals complex is looking very ugly.  I suspect that some support will be seen around 415 but the market is on its way to sub $400 pricing.  Puts remain inexpensive and I recommend buying them on any bounce.  Copper broke but has so many places to offer support that I may miss the move out of sheer lack of desire to participate.  Palladium is still a buy with stops below 175.

Softs
OJ traded sideways with the potential for support above 90 and the possibility of a resumed bull market if we can get back above 95.70.  Coffee volatility is hot and I am just a fan of any defined risk play here as the market lacks a clear short term direction.  Long term I remain an adamant bull.  Cocoa is breaking down below critical support as the dollar gains strength.  A September long strangle is recommended as volatility premium should be at its lows for the year.  Look for continued downside as the US dollar rallies, but ultimately the market will retest the 1800 area before it is all said and done.  Cotton is breaking as expected - look for a move below 5100 by the end of the month.  Sugar is bearish but the play is a buy with sell stops at 807 or below.  Lumber remains a sell.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.