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Markets Swap Places as Selling Stabilizes
By Toni Hansen | Published  07/18/2006 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Markets Swap Places as Selling Stabilizes

Good day! After a strong week of selling in the overall market and gains in oil, energy and gold stocks, there was a bit of an "about-face" on Monday. Oil and gold retreated off last week's highs, and the rest of the market paused to catch its breath following its recent sell-a-thon. Some stronger news on the earnings front was offset by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, creating a mixed session that had established its entire day's range within about an hour of the open.

We managed to locate what would become some of the top gainers on the day heading into the session with ASO and RF. Out of the four daily pivots setups I was watching the night before, these two took the cake. Of the other two, NSM gapped and failed to provide an intraday setup and HCA ran a bit out of the open but failed to form any intraday continuation patterns and closed relatively unchanged. On the short side, BIIB from the watch list gapped lower and continued to sell off right away on a very small bear flag out of the open. SAFC had already been more extended after selling offlast week, but it remains of interest in the week ahead. Some of the other leading stocks in the overall market on Monday were MCD, BA, BIDU and AAPL.

In addition to earnings, this week is a busy one on the economic front. The NY Empire State Index pulled back to 15.6 points off June's high of 29, much further than anticipated. The slowdown on the manufacturing front was also evident in the decline of new orders, which hit last summer's lows. The prices paid index fell to 50.5 points, while the employment index rose to 6.5. In contrast, industrial output rose 0.8%. With capacity utilization (which measures inflationary pressures) rising to the highest of in six year, the Federal Reserve may still feel the desire to once again raise rates in August.

From a technical standpoint, the market is in limbo right now. Earnings season, tensions in the Middle East and Asia, and this week's economic data all loom on the horizon. While the initial bias is for the market to attempt another wave of selling on the 30-60 minutes charts heading into Tuesday, it would not take more than a simple flush lower on the 5 or 15 minute charts to create a strong pivot low on the intraday time frames and open the door for a retracement back into 20 day simple moving average resistance.

Monday overall was a great day for pivot trading on the smaller time frames since the market was just beginning to break the 15 minute 20 sma after several days of selling. Support and resistance levels held very well throughout the day and we started to see a lot more for core pattern setups in the momentum stocks intraday. For swingtraders, however, it meant a lot fewer opportunities. This is likely to continue for a few more days, so it's important be a bit more picky this week than last.

Economic Reports and Events
July 18: Core PPI and PPI for June (8:30 am), Net Foreign Purchases for May (9:00 am)
July 19: Building Permits for June (8:30 am), Core CPI and CPI for June (8:30 am), Housing Starts for June (8:30 am), Crude Inventories 7/14 (10:30 am)
July 20: Initial Claims 7/15 (8:30 am), Leading Indicators for June (10:00 am)
July 21: Philadelphia Fed for July (12:00 pm), FOMC Minutes - June 29 (2:00 pm)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
July 18: ADTN (?), AMTD (?), ASO (B), CHKP (A), CNW (A), CSX (A), DTAS (A), FDG (?), ILMN (A), IBM (?), KEY (B), MER (?), MTG (B), NBB (B), PKG (A), STT (B), KO (B), NYT (B), USB (B), UTX (B), WFC (B), YHOO (?)
July 19: ABT (?), ADS (?), DOX (?), ASD (?), APH (?), AMR (?), AAPL (A), ASML (?). AZR (A), BAC (?), BCR (A), CDWC (B), CIT (B), CBSS (?), CBST (A), ET (A), EBAY (?), EFII (A), FHN (A), FLIR (B), GD (B), GPC (B), HST (B), INTC (A), ISIL (A), JPM (B), JNPR (A), KEA (?), NITE (B), LRW (A), LRCX (?), MAN (B), MEL (B), MOGN (A), MGI (?), MOT (A), NTRS (?), NVLS (?), JNC (B), NVEC (?), PNC (?), PLCM (?), QCOM (A), RDN (A), RMBS (?), RYL (B), SSTI (?), LUV (B), STJ (B), STI (B), SWFT (?), SNV (?), TER (A), ALL (A), BK (B), TMK (A), UIS (B), UNH (B), WM (A), YUM (A)
July 20: ACMR, AME, BAX, BBT, BLS, BHE, CBOT, CHIC, CHZ, CPS, CMA, CAL, CBE, DHR, CY, DJ, DHI, ELNK, ENDP, EFX, FCS, F, IMCL, ITW, LSTR, LOGI, MMR, MDC, MEDI, NE, NOK, NCX, NVR, ORB, BTU, PFE, PPG, REDF, RS, RIMG, SAP, SCHL, SLM, SMMX, TXT, TMK, TRAD, TZOO, UTEK, USAP, WB, WFT, AMD, AFFX, AH, AVID, BRCM, BTUI, COF, CERN, CHRT, COHU, CPWR, DST, FFIV, GILD, GOOG, HAL, HYSL, INFA, NSIT, XXIA, LAUR, LEG, MENT, MSFT, MDCC, MROI, NDAQ, PDFS, RLI, RSAS, SCST, TPX, XPRSA, VRSN, XLNX, and ZHNE.
July 21: ACO, ACI, CAT, LLY, GAP, HBAN, IUSA, ERICY, NUE, RSH, SLB, SEPR, WL, and CYT
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.