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Two Predictions for August
By Andy Swan | Published  07/19/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
Two Predictions for August

July has been awful for the markets. Investors are getting slammed with bad news day after day, the markets have been plunging and tech has been leading the way.

So why am I smiling so big right now? Because I'm a trader, capable of profiting from any market conditions.

But it's not the past you are worried about, it's the future. So without further delay, here are my three predictions for August and the rest of July:

1. Oil Prices will drop. I might be the only person in the world that thinks this right now.  In fact, as I'm typing this I'm starting to realize just how funny those words look on screen. "Oil prices will drop" -- haven't heard that in a while.

But that's all the more reason to believe it. The crowd thinks oil prices are heading higher. And who can blame them? North Korea is shooting off missiles like firecrackers, Iran is rattling the saber and the Middle East seems to be getting more unstable by the minute. In fact, anxiety is gripping the region.

Fortunately for us, we understand that more often than not, the crowd is wrong. Hype and fear exaggerate themselves and disrupt markets, causing pricing based more on emotion than prudence.

The fact remains that there is plenty of oil in reserves, inventory and production to meet the growing demand for energy. Once the "fear factor" subsides and the market realizes that we aren't going to enter World War III just yet, prices should begin a nice little fall back into the 50's per barrel where they truly belong.

2. Volatility will remain high. We've had a lot of days lately where the market moves big. 100-point moves (mostly drops) in the Dow haven't been uncommon, and options premiums have increased as a result.

This volatility has effected our trading systems in a variety of ways.  Sharp moves in stocks have provided excellent entry points along trendlines.  We fully expect to continue to enjoy high-quality trade setups, especially on relatively strong stocks during sharp index declines.  In other words, I don't see anything on the horizon that will take away the advantage that solid, intelligent traders have over the market.

Andy Swan is co-founder and head trader for DaytradeTeam.com.  To get all of Andy's day trading, swing trading, and options trading alerts in real time, subscribe to a one-week, all-inclusive trial membership to DaytradeTeam by clicking here.